María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...
Leader sits at 12% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 11%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
June 30
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
11¢
May 31
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$21K
liquid
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
57 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by
Analysis
This 12% probability reflects market estimates that María Corina Machado, Venezuela's opposition leader, will physically enter the country by June 30, 2026. Currently in exile, any return would represent a significant escalation in Venezuela's political crisis and could trigger immediate confrontation with the ruling government. The low probability reflects substantial barriers: security risks, government opposition, and uncertainty about whether conditions would permit safe entry. Markets are pricing in roughly a one-in-eight chance this occurs within the next two months. The key driver would be either major political instability that weakens government control or a negotiated agreement enabling her return. Related markets suggest lower confidence (9%) that she becomes leader by year-end, implying markets distinguish between entry and gaining power.
- ›Current location and movement: Machado is in exile; no confirmed plans or public timeline for return have been announced as of early May 2026
- ›Security environment: Venezuelan security forces have detained opposition figures; any return attempt would face high arrest or violence risk
- ›Government negotiations: Whether opposition, international parties, or the regime are pursuing dialogue that might enable safe passage
- ›Parallel market signals: Related contracts show 12% for head-of-state status by Dec 31 and 17% for leadership change, suggesting entry alone is insufficient for power transfer
- ›Historical precedent: Previous opposition figures attempting clandestine or negotiated returns to Venezuela have faced arrest or exile resumption
What moved the line
- Apr 30May 31↓12pp21→9¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29June 30↓12pp31→19¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28June 30↑8pp23→31¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28May 31↑7pp14→21¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 26June 30↓6pp28→22¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (12% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 14 min ago.