Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs. Júbilo Iwata
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 40% across 20 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
40%
20 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
20 contracts
Top contract
50¢
$0 · Polymarket
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Ventforet Kōfu vs. Júbilo Iwata” vs “FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Ventforet Kōfu vs. Júbilo Iwata
Ventforet Kōfu vs. Júbilo Iwata - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x0adfa4…5fdd
Ventforet Kōfu vs. Júbilo Iwata - More Markets: Júbilo Iwata (-2.5)
0x9dc1f0…3abe
Ventforet Kōfu vs. Júbilo Iwata: Ventforet Kōfu
0xda69dd…ca85
Ventforet Kōfu vs. Júbilo Iwata - More Markets: Júbilo Iwata (-1.5)
0x077801…3ead
Ventforet Kōfu vs. Júbilo Iwata: Júbilo Iwata
0x6ee605…c0b5
Ventforet Kōfu vs. Júbilo Iwata - More Markets: Ventforet Kōfu (-1.5)
0xdb9799…5f07
Ventforet Kōfu vs. Júbilo Iwata: Draw (Ventforet Kōfu vs. Júbilo Iwata)
0x8b615b…7665
Ventforet Kōfu vs. Júbilo Iwata - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x35df37…0e4f
Ventforet Kōfu vs. Júbilo Iwata - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xc95a40…390b
Ventforet Kōfu vs. Júbilo Iwata - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x6ae87a…092d
Ventforet Kōfu vs. Júbilo Iwata - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xdbabef…231f
Ventforet Kōfu vs. Júbilo Iwata - More Markets: Ventforet Kōfu (-2.5)
0xcac6d6…bece
Cluster 2
FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC
FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Markets: Matsumoto Yamaga FC (-1.5)
0x17df3f…3a78
FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xe897e5…45d0
FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Markets: FC Gifu (-2.5)
0x357eb0…5b1a
FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x3a2525…2e6c
FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x0aa172…3ef6
FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC: FC Gifu
0x55f8ff…ccff
FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Markets: Matsumoto Yamaga FC (-2.5)
0x1852d1…1f72
FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC: Draw (FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC)
0x6ff136…16a3
What moved the line
- May 3Júbilo Iwata (-1.5)↑5pp33→38¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Matsumoto Yamaga FC (-1.5)↑4pp33→37¢ · Polymarket
- May 3FC Gifu (-2.5)↑4pp32→36¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 7 min ago.