Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
Leader sits at 59% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 29%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↑3k
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
29¢
↑4k
Spread
30pp
contested
24h volume
$732
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
241 days
Venue
Polymarket
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?: ↑3k
0xe815a6…f3e5
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?: ↑10k
0x1d9160…8827
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?: ↑4k
0x15a764…58c7
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?: ↑5k
0xd15f77…e9ea
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?: ↑7.5k
0xfa3dc3…a1a7
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?: ↑12.5k
0xf84585…dc09
Analysis
This market estimates a 61% probability that the U.S. will see more than 7,500 measles cases in 2026. The forecast reflects current vaccination coverage rates, regional outbreaks, and travel patterns that affect disease spread. Measles cases depend heavily on immunization levels in vulnerable populations; areas with lower vaccination rates face higher transmission risk. The probability could shift based on spring/summer outbreak data as it becomes available, and final 2026 case counts won't be known until early 2027. CDC surveillance reports and any emerging clusters in coming months will be the primary indicators shaping expectations. Related markets show traders estimate under 4,000 cases at 31 cents, suggesting meaningful disagreement about severity thresholds.
- ›U.S. childhood vaccination coverage rates (MMR) remain the strongest determinant—currently around 94% nationally, but regional disparities exist in pockets with 85% or lower coverage
- ›Measles cases in 2025 and early 2026 will establish baseline transmission dynamics; January-April 2026 case data is the nearest leading indicator
- ›International travel and importation from regions with ongoing transmission can trigger local outbreaks; outbreak origins are typically travel-related
- ›The market prices the 4,000-case threshold at 31 cents, implying significant divergence about how high 2026 cases will actually climb
- ›Clustering of cases around school years and summer travel seasons means surveillance patterns from May-September 2026 will heavily influence final resolution
What moved the line
- May 1↑3k↓12pp69→57¢ · Polymarket
- May 1↑4k↓6pp36→30¢ · Polymarket
- May 2↑3k↑4pp57→61¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29↑5k↓4pp21→17¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 27↑4k↓3pp36→33¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 7 min ago.