Mirassol FC vs. LDU de Quito
Leader sits at 63% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 24%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Mirassol FC
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
24¢
Draw (Mirassol FC vs. LDU de
Spread
39pp
contested
24h volume
$46
thin orderbook
Closes
May 7, 2026
3 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Mirassol FC vs. LDU de Quito
Analysis
This represents the implied probability that Mirassol FC will defeat LDU de Quito in an upcoming match. The 62% price suggests market participants view Mirassol as the favored outcome, though roughly one-in-four traders expect a draw. The probability level is driven by factors such as current league standings, recent form of both teams, home-field advantage if applicable, and squad availability. The match result will be determined on the scheduled game date, which will directly resolve this contract. Volume data shows limited trading activity, suggesting either low awareness among traders or confidence in the current pricing. The 24% draw probability indicates meaningful uncertainty about whether the teams will play to a stalemate, which would affect the final outcome distribution.
- ›Mirassol FC is priced at 62 cents while LDU de Quito is at 14 cents, with draws at 24 cents, suggesting asymmetric confidence in the outcome
- ›The primary contract shows $46 in 24-hour volume, indicating sparse recent trading relative to broader prediction markets
- ›LDU de Quito has a separate Copa Libertadores winner contract trading at 4 cents, suggesting longer-term uncertainty about the team's tournament prospects
- ›Draw probability at 24% reflects meaningful possibility of a stalemate outcome, affecting Mirassol's effective win probability
- ›The aggregated probability derives from only two Polymarket contracts with modest liquidity, limiting data diversity for this specific matchup
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.