Los Angeles D vs San Francisco First Inning Run
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 48% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
48%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$51K
20 contracts
Top contract
43¢
$18K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
18 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Baltimore vs New York Y First Inning Run” vs “Chicago WS vs”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Baltimore vs New York Y First Inning Run
Cluster 2
Chicago WS vs
Cluster 3
Toronto vs Minnesota First Inning Run
Toronto vs Minnesota First Inning Run?: Yes
KXMLBRFI-26MAY031245TORMIN
Cluster 4
Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh First Inning Run
Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh First Inning Run?: Yes
KXMLBRFI-26MAY031335CINPIT
Cluster 5
Milwaukee vs Washington First Inning Run
Milwaukee vs Washington First Inning Run?: Yes
KXMLBRFI-26MAY031335MILWSH
Cluster 6
Atlanta vs Seattle First Inning Run
Atlanta vs Seattle First Inning Run?: Yes
KXMLBRFI-26MAY042140ATLSEA
Cluster 7
Atlanta vs Colorado First Inning Run
Atlanta vs Colorado First Inning Run?: Yes
KXMLBRFI-26MAY031510ATLCOL
Cluster 8
San Francisco vs Tampa Bay First Inning Run
San Francisco vs Tampa Bay First Inning Run?: Yes
KXMLBRFI-26MAY031340SFTB
Cluster 9
Arizona vs Chicago C First Inning Run
Arizona vs Chicago C First Inning Run?: Yes
KXMLBRFI-26MAY031420AZCHC
Cluster 10
Los Angeles D vs St. Louis First Inning Run
Los Angeles D vs St. Louis First Inning Run?: Yes
KXMLBRFI-26MAY031415LADSTL
Cluster 11
Kansas City vs Seattle First Inning Run
Kansas City vs Seattle First Inning Run?: Yes
KXMLBRFI-26MAY031610KCSEA
Cluster 12
New York M vs Los Angeles A First Inning Run
New York M vs Los Angeles A First Inning Run?: Yes
KXMLBRFI-26MAY031607NYMLAA
Cluster 13
Cleveland vs A's First Inning Run
Cleveland vs A's First Inning Run?: Yes
KXMLBRFI-26MAY031605CLEATH
Cluster 14
Houston vs Boston First Inning Run
Houston vs Boston First Inning Run?: Yes
KXMLBRFI-26MAY031335HOUBOS
Cluster 15
Texas vs Detroit First Inning Run
Texas vs Detroit First Inning Run?: Yes
KXMLBRFI-26MAY031920TEXDET
Cluster 16
Philadelphia vs Miami First Inning Run
Philadelphia vs Miami First Inning Run?: Yes
KXMLBRFI-26MAY031340PHIMIA
Cluster 17
San Diego vs San Francisco First Inning Run
San Diego vs San Francisco First Inning Run?: Yes
KXMLBRFI-26MAY052145SDSF
Cluster 18
Pittsburgh vs Arizona First Inning Run
Pittsburgh vs Arizona First Inning Run?: Yes
KXMLBRFI-26MAY052140PITAZ
What moved the line
- May 1Yes↑15pp31→46¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Yes↑14pp31→45¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Yes↑10pp44→54¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Yes↑9pp36→45¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Yes↑9pp36→45¢ · Kalshi
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 8 min ago.