Will A's score over 7.5 runs
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 44% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
44%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$14K
20 contracts
Closes
May 6, 2026
3 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
13 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 17% of their title tokens — “Will New York” vs “Will Baltimore score over”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will New York
Will New York Y score over 7.5 runs?: New York Y over 7.5 runs scored
KXMLBTEAMTOTAL-26MAY031335BALNYY-NYY8
Will New York Y score over 4.5 runs?: New York Y over 4.5 runs scored
KXMLBTEAMTOTAL-26MAY031335BALNYY-NYY5
Will New York Y score over 5.5 runs?: New York Y over 5.5 runs scored
KXMLBTEAMTOTAL-26MAY031335BALNYY-NYY6
Will New York M score over 5.5 runs?: New York M over 5.5 runs scored
KXMLBTEAMTOTAL-26MAY031607NYMLAA-NYM6
Cluster 2
Will Baltimore score over
Cluster 3
Will Philadelphia score over
Cluster 4
Will Los Angeles D score over
Cluster 5
Will San Francisco score over
Cluster 6
Will Milwaukee score over 4.5 runs
Will Milwaukee score over 4.5 runs?: Milwaukee over 4.5 runs scored
KXMLBTEAMTOTAL-26MAY031335MILWSH-MIL5
Cluster 7
Will Cincinnati score over 3.5 runs
Will Cincinnati score over 3.5 runs?: Cincinnati over 3.5 runs scored
KXMLBTEAMTOTAL-26MAY031335CINPIT-CIN4
Cluster 8
Will Miami score over 3.5 runs
Will Miami score over 3.5 runs?: Miami over 3.5 runs scored
KXMLBTEAMTOTAL-26MAY031340PHIMIA-MIA4
Cluster 9
Will Pittsburgh score over 3.5 runs
Will Pittsburgh score over 3.5 runs?: Pittsburgh over 3.5 runs scored
KXMLBTEAMTOTAL-26MAY031335CINPIT-PIT4
Cluster 10
Will Kansas City score over 3.5 runs
Will Kansas City score over 3.5 runs?: Kansas City over 3.5 runs scored
KXMLBTEAMTOTAL-26MAY031610KCSEA-KC4
Cluster 11
Will Atlanta score over 5.5 runs
Will Atlanta score over 5.5 runs?: Atlanta over 5.5 runs scored
KXMLBTEAMTOTAL-26MAY031510ATLCOL-ATL6
Cluster 12
Will Seattle score over 7.5 runs
Will Seattle score over 7.5 runs?: Seattle over 7.5 runs scored
KXMLBTEAMTOTAL-26MAY031610KCSEA-SEA8
Cluster 13
Will Tampa Bay score over 4.5 runs
Will Tampa Bay score over 4.5 runs?: Tampa Bay over 4.5 runs scored
KXMLBTEAMTOTAL-26MAY031340SFTB-TB5
What moved the line
- May 3Philadelphia over 3.5 runs scored↑33pp23→56¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Los Angeles D over 5.5 runs scored↑30pp4→34¢ · Kalshi
- May 3New York Y over 5.5 runs scored↑29pp9→38¢ · Kalshi
- May 3New York Y over 4.5 runs scored↑27pp26→53¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Baltimore over 1.5 runs scored↑26pp39→65¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.