Colorado at Vancouver
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 38% across 18 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
38%
18 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$6K
18 contracts
Top contract
13¢
$5K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “DC United at New York City: Totals: Over” vs “Vancouver at San Jose: Totals: Over”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
DC United at New York City: Totals: Over
DC United at New York City: Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored
KXMLSTOTAL-26MAY03NYCDCU-1
DC United at New York City: Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored
KXMLSTOTAL-26MAY03NYCDCU-2
DC United at New York City: Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored
KXMLSTOTAL-26MAY03NYCDCU-3
DC United at New York City: Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored
KXMLSTOTAL-26MAY03NYCDCU-4
Cluster 2
Vancouver at San Jose: Totals: Over
Vancouver at San Jose: Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored
KXMLSTOTAL-26MAY09SJVAN-1
Vancouver at San Jose: Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored
KXMLSTOTAL-26MAY09SJVAN-4
Vancouver at San Jose: Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored
KXMLSTOTAL-26MAY09SJVAN-3
Vancouver at San Jose: Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored
KXMLSTOTAL-26MAY09SJVAN-2
Cluster 3
Austin at Minnesota: Totals: Over
Cluster 4
Columbus at New York City: Totals: Over
Columbus at New York City: Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored
KXMLSTOTAL-26MAY10NYCCLB-1
Columbus at New York City: Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored
KXMLSTOTAL-26MAY10NYCCLB-3
Columbus at New York City: Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored
KXMLSTOTAL-26MAY10NYCCLB-2
Cluster 5
Saint Louis at Austin: Totals: Over
Cluster 6
Orlando at Montreal: Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored
Orlando at Montreal: Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored
KXMLSTOTAL-26MAY09MTLORL-3
Cluster 7
San Diego FC at Seattle: Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored
San Diego FC at Seattle: Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored
KXMLSTOTAL-26MAY09SEASD-1
What moved the line
- May 3Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored↑30pp8→38¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 27Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored↑6pp65→71¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored↑4pp9→13¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 27Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored↑4pp23→27¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 27Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored↑3pp47→50¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.