Mohammedan SC vs. Mumbai City FC
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 34% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 40%, Polymarket at 33% — a 7pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
40%
3 contracts
Polymarket
33%
17 contracts
Cross-venue gap
7pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$501
20 contracts
Closes
May 3, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 40¢ · Polymarket 33¢ · 7pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (33¢, 17 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (40¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
6 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 17% of their title tokens — “Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC” vs “Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC
Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC: Mumbai City FC
0xffedbd…a322
Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x53fd8b…a3a0
Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x4d7c4d…2b66
Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC - More Markets: East Bengal FC (-2.5)
0x39ca4c…9a02
Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xc8761a…bc65
Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC - More Markets: Mumbai City FC (-2.5)
0x870a50…7744
Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x8a0a7c…9c4e
Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC: Draw (Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC)
0xcfe0a0…35ee
Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC - More Markets: Mumbai City FC (-1.5)
0x859e14…c478
Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x1c8aa1…811a
Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC - More Markets: East Bengal FC (-1.5)
0x1ef468…3cd4
Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC: East Bengal FC
0x97080a…f8a2
Cluster 2
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC
Cluster 3
Will Zero Tenacity win
Cluster 4
Will Nigma Galaxy win the Zero Tenacity vs. Nigma Galaxy Dota 2 match
Will Nigma Galaxy win the Zero Tenacity vs. Nigma Galaxy Dota 2 match?: Nigma Galaxy
KXDOTA2GAME-26MAY031100Z10NGX-NGX
Cluster 5
Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino - More Markets: Montevideo City Torque
Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino - More Markets: Montevideo City Torque (-1.5)
0xfaa73b…37c0
Cluster 6
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x0e25b5…6674
What moved the line
- May 3Tochigi City FC↓16pp50→34¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Zero Tenacity↑10pp12→22¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Nigma Galaxy↑9pp70→79¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Mumbai City FC (-2.5)↑7pp14→21¢ · Polymarket
- May 2East Bengal FC (-2.5)↓6pp19→13¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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