Will mortgage rates drop below 5%?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 23% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
23%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
7 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
132 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 6% of their title tokens — “Will Bank of Canada” vs “Will any 2026 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) report a 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate below 5.75%”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Bank of Canada
Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?: Maintains rate
KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H0
Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?: Hike 25bps
KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H25
Will Bank of Canada Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?: Cut 25bps
KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-C25
Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?: Hike 25bps
KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26DEC-H25
Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting?: Maintains rate
KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26DEC-H0
Will Bank of Canada Cut rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?: Cut 25bps
KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26DEC-C25
Cluster 2
Will any 2026 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) report a 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate below 5.75%
Analysis
Current prediction market data suggests mortgage rates are unlikely to drop below 5 percent in the near term, as markets reflect significant uncertainty about a move below 5.75%. The market implies an 88% probability that 30-year fixed-rate mortgages will remain at or above 5.75% for the remainder of 2026.
- ›High interest rate floor
- ›Persistent mortgage rate premiums
- ›Treasury yield environment
- ›Limited downward rate pressure
What moved the line
- Aug 17Maintains rate↓13pp41→28¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 18Maintains rate↓4pp89→85¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 15Maintains rate↑3pp84→87¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Maintains rate↓3pp83→80¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Hike 25bps↑3pp9→12¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in economy
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- Will the South Africa inflation rate MoM for May 2026 be above 1.0%last 68% · 3d
- What are the odds of a Fed rate cut?last 18% · 4d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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