Will mortgage rates drop below 5%?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
31%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
7 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
188 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 6% of their title tokens — “Will Bank of Canada” vs “Will any 2026 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) report a 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate below 5.75%”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Bank of Canada
Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their July 2026 meeting?: Maintains rate
KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26JUL-H0
Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?: Hike 25bps
KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H25
Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?: Maintains rate
KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H0
Will Bank of Canada Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?: Cut 25bps
KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-C25
Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting?: Maintains rate
KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26DEC-H0
Will Bank of Canada Cut rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?: Cut 25bps
KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26DEC-C25
Cluster 2
Will any 2026 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) report a 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate below 5.75%
Analysis
There are no prediction markets currently tracking the probability of mortgage rates dropping below 5 percent. While the Fed Funds Effective Rate is at 3.63%, there is no direct market data available to estimate the likelihood of mortgage rates hitting your target threshold.
- ›Fed Funds Effective Rate at 3.63%
- ›Lack of direct mortgage market derivatives
- ›Current inflationary environment
What moved the line
- Jun 24Cut 25bps↓11pp16→5¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Maintains rate↑6pp53→59¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 26Maintains rate↑6pp65→71¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 26Maintains rate↑5pp88→93¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Maintains rate↑5pp60→65¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in economy
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- Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 3.6%last 62% · 2d
- Will Spain GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.9%last 92% · 2d
- Germany GDP growth in Q1 2026?: 0.4-0.6%last 62% · 3d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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