Will the Fed cut rates in July 2026?
Kalshi
14 contracts
Polymarket
6 contracts
Analysis
Prediction markets currently assign an extremely low probability to a federal funds rate above 3.50% by the June 2026 meeting, implying a strong expectation that the Fed will either maintain or lower rates heading into July. With the current federal funds rate at 3.64%, the high pricing of contracts tied to the 3.25% threshold suggests the market is positioning for a shift in policy before mid-year.
- ›Current Fed Funds Rate of 3.64%
- ›Market pricing for sub-3.50% rate by June
- ›High confidence in rates staying above 3.25% through April
- ›CPI inflation currently at 3.29%
- ›Expectation of rate path softening
Contracts
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their June 2026 meeting?: Cut 25bps
Will the Fed cut rates 0 times?: Exactly 0 cuts
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 1 (25 bps)
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 2 (50 bps)
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 3 (75 bps)
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 4 (100 bps)
Fed rate cut by...?: July Meeting
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their July 2026 meeting?: Fed maintains rate
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their July 2026 meeting?: Cut 25bps
Will the Fed cut rates more than 25 bps in 2026?
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their July 2026 meeting?: Hike 25bps
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?: Cut 25bps
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?: Cut 25bps
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting?: Cut 25bps
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting?: Cut >25bps
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their July 2027 meeting?: Cut 25bps
Will Bank of Canada Cut rates by 25bps at their July 2026 meeting?: Cut 25bps
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their July 2027 meeting?: Cut >25bps
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their July 2026 meeting?: Cut >25bps