Will the Fed cut rates in July 2026?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 47% across 23 contracts. Kalshi at 62%, Polymarket at 17% — a 45pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
62%
15 contracts
Polymarket
17%
8 contracts
Cross-venue gap
45pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$20.6M
23 contracts
Closes
Jul 29, 2026
52 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 62¢ · Polymarket 17¢ · 45pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (17¢, 8 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (62¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
2 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 8% of their title tokens — “Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above” vs “How many Fed rate cuts in 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting?
KXFED-26JUN-T3.75
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting?
KXFED-26JUN-T3.25
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting?
KXFED-26JUN-T3.50
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting?
KXFED-26JUN-T4.00
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting?
KXFED-26JUN-T2.75
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?
KXFED-26DEC-T3.50
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting?
KXFED-26JUL-T3.50
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?
KXFED-26DEC-T2.75
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting?
KXFED-26JUL-T3.25
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting?
KXFED-26JUL-T3.75
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting?
KXFED-26JUN-T4.25
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?
KXFED-26SEP-T3.50
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?
KXFED-26DEC-T3.25
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting?
KXFED-26JUN-T4.50
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?
KXFED-26DEC-T3.00
Cluster 2
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)
0xd4e77b…8527
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 11 (275 bps)
0x1adf07…1ae3
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 10 (250 bps)
0x757c14…bc87
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 9 (225 bps)
0x4ec6fc…248b
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 6 (150 bps)
0x4914bf…fe75
Analysis
Prediction markets indicate a 97% probability that the federal funds rate will remain above 3.25% following the Fed's July 29, 2026 meeting. Current market pricing shows high confidence that rates will not be cut below 3.50% by July, with only a 14% chance implied by markets that rates remain above 3.75%. This reflects the current federal funds rate of 3.63% as of May 2026.
- ›Federal funds rate at 3.63%
- ›97% chance rates stay above 3.25% in July
- ›94% chance rates stay above 3.50% in July
- ›Persistent interest rate level
- ›14% chance rates stay above 3.75% in July
What moved the line
- Jun 4Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?↓14pp93→79¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?↑8pp78→86¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 3Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?↑7pp64→71¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 4Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?↓7pp71→64¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 3Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?↑7pp86→93¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in fed rate
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- Will 30Y US Treasury Yield before month-end be above 5.25%last 6% · 8d
- Jerome Powell departs as Fed Chair by...last 93% · 15d
- When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chairlast 96% · 15d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.