Will the Fed cut rates in July 2026?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 42% across 27 contracts. Kalshi at 61%, Polymarket at 19% — a 42pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
61%
15 contracts
Polymarket
19%
12 contracts
Cross-venue gap
42pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$73.1M
27 contracts
Closes
Jul 29, 2026
7 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 61¢ · Polymarket 19¢ · 42pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (19¢, 12 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (61¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
4 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above” vs “Fed Decision in July”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting?
KXFED-26JUL-T3.75
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting?
KXFED-26JUL-T3.50
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting?
KXFED-26JUL-T4.00
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting?
KXFED-26JUL-T2.75
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting?
KXFED-26JUL-T4.25
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting?
KXFED-26JUL-T3.25
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting?
KXFED-26JUL-T3.00
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?
KXFED-26SEP-T3.75
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?
KXFED-26DEC-T3.50
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?
KXFED-26DEC-T3.75
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?
KXFED-26DEC-T2.75
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?
KXFED-26SEP-T3.50
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?
KXFED-26SEP-T4.00
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?
KXFED-26DEC-T3.25
Cluster 2
Fed Decision in July
Cluster 3
Fed rate cut by
Fed rate cut by...?: July Meeting
0x025073…072e
Cluster 4
Will the July 2026 FOMC statement include forward-looking rate guidance
Will the July 2026 FOMC statement include forward-looking rate guidance?
KXFOMCGUIDE-26-FWD
Analysis
The federal funds rate is currently 3.63%, and prediction markets overwhelmingly indicate that rates will remain above 3.50% through September, showing virtually no expectation of a rate cut for July. Market participants are pricing in a high degree of confidence that rates will stay elevated, with a 59% chance the upper bound stays above 3.75% for the September meeting and an 84% chance it concludes the year above 3.50%.
- ›Current Fed funds rate 3.63%
- ›High confidence in sustained rates
- ›September rate floor sentiment
- ›December policy outlook
What moved the line
- Jul 22Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?↑18pp41→59¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 20Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?↓17pp48→31¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 18Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?↑13pp48→61¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 19Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?↓13pp61→48¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 21Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?↑12pp39→51¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in fed rate
- What are the odds of a Fed rate cut?last 19% · 0d
- Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 17, 2026last 96% · 6d
- Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.04% on Jul 17, 2026last 96% · 6d
- Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.29% on Jul 13, 2026last 97% · 10d
- Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 13, 2026last 84% · 10d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in fed rate.
In fed rate
Related reading
Markets Expect Fed to Hold Steady, But Bond Yields Rise
The markets are pricing a high probability of a Fed hold in July, but bond yields are rising, indicating a 'higher for longer' rate environment.
Fed expected to hold rates steady in July, CPI data in focus
The Fed July meeting is approaching, with markets pricing a 93% probability of no rate change. The 25bps hike contract is at 5¢, reflecting low odds. CPI data will be key to watch.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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