What are the odds of a Fed rate cut?
Leader sits at 25% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 15%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
December Meeting
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
15¢
October Meeting
Spread
10pp
contested
24h volume
$27K
liquid
Closes
Jun 17, 2026
10 days
Venue
Polymarket
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Fed rate cut by
Analysis
The federal funds rate is currently 3.63%, and prediction markets assign a 95% probability that the rate will remain above 3.50% following the September 2026 meeting. Market pricing remains hawkish through year-end, with an 84% probability that rates stay above 3.25% in December and a 54% probability they remain above 3.25% by January 2027.
- ›Current Fed funds rate 3.63%
- ›High probability of sustained rates
- ›December rate floor pricing
- ›Extended hawkish outlook into 2027
What moved the line
- May 30December Meeting↓3pp34→31¢ · Polymarket
- May 31December Meeting↓3pp31→28¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in fed rate
- Will the Fed cut rates in July 2026?last 42% · 1d
- How many Federal Reserve posts on X the week ending on Jun 4, 2026last 65% · 2d
- What will Jerome Powell say during Acceptance Remarks At the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award Ceremonylast 84% · 5d
- Will 30Y US Treasury Yield before month-end be above 5.25%last 6% · 7d
- When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chairlast 96% · 14d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in fed rate.
In fed rate
Related reading
Fed Hawks Soar: Zero Rate Cuts in 2026 Becomes Base Case
The probability of no Fed rate cuts in 2026 jumped 12¢ to 81¢ after stronger-than-expected payrolls and hawkish FOMC minutes, overturning earlier expectations of a cutting cycle. The 'Fed rate hike in 2026' market surged to 52¢, now a coin flip.
Tariff Shock Rattles Everything: VIX +10%, S&P -2.2%, Oil +7.6%
Tariff escalation triggered a sharp market downturn with VIX jumping 10% to 38.26, S&P 500 down 2.2%, and oil up 7.6%, while prediction markets price stagflation fears and a 37¢ recession probability.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.