What are the odds of a Fed rate cut?
Kalshi
9 contracts
Polymarket
11 contracts
Analysis
The federal funds rate is currently 3.64%, and prediction markets suggest it is virtually certain to remain above 3.00% through the end of April. By mid-2026, markets indicate a dominant 88% probability that the rate will stay above 3.50%, with further declines expected by year-end.
- ›current effective rate at 3.64%
- ›99% probability above 3.00% for late April
- ›88% probability above 3.50% for June
- ›34% probability above 3.50% by December
Contracts
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their June 2026 meeting?: Cut 25bps
Will the Fed cut rates 0 times?: Exactly 0 cuts
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 1 (25 bps)
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 2 (50 bps)
Will the Fed cut rates 1 times?: Exactly 1 cut
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 3 (75 bps)
Will the Federal Reserve cut rates before 2027?: Cuts
Fed rate cut by...?: September Meeting
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 4 (100 bps)
Fed rate cut by...?: June Meeting
Will the Fed cut rates 2 times?: Exactly 2 cuts
Fed rate cut by...?: July Meeting
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their July 2026 meeting?: Cut 25bps
Will the Fed cut rates 1 times at emergency meetings?: 1 cuts
Fed rate cut by...?: December Meeting
Will the Fed cut rates more than 25 bps in 2026?
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?: Fed Rate Cut
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?: Cut 25bps