What are the odds of a Fed rate cut?
Leader sits at 28% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 20%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
20¢
Will the upper bound of the
Spread
8pp
contested
24h volume
$28.4M
liquid
Closes
Jun 17, 2026
0 days
Cross-venue
K15+P4
33pp gap
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 60¢ · Polymarket 27¢ · 33pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (27¢, 4 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (60¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
2 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 8% of their title tokens — “Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above” vs “How many Fed rate cuts in 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?
KXFED-26SEP-T3.75
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?
KXFED-26SEP-T4.75
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?
KXFED-26SEP-T3.50
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?
KXFED-26SEP-T4.00
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?
KXFED-26SEP-T4.50
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?
KXFED-26SEP-T4.25
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?
KXFED-26DEC-T3.50
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?
KXFED-26DEC-T2.75
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?
KXFED-26DEC-T3.25
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?
KXFED-26OCT-T4.00
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?
KXFED-26OCT-T3.50
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?
KXFED-26SEP-T3.25
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?
KXFED-26SEP-T2.75
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?
KXFED-26OCT-T3.75
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?
KXFED-26SEP-T3.00
Cluster 2
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)
0xd4e77b…8527
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 11 (275 bps)
0x1adf07…1ae3
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 10 (250 bps)
0x757c14…bc87
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 9 (225 bps)
0x4ec6fc…248b
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 6 (150 bps)
0x4914bf…fe75
Analysis
The federal funds rate is currently 3.63%, and prediction markets assign a 50% probability that the rate will remain above 3.75% following the Federal Reserve's September 16, 2026 meeting. There is a very high market consensus that the rate will stay above 3.50% (99% probability), while a rate drop below 3.75% is viewed as equally likely as a rate maintenance at or above that level.
- ›Federal Funds Rate at 3.63%
- ›50% probability of rate > 3.75%
- ›99% probability of rate > 3.50%
- ›High market volume indicating stability
What moved the line
- Aug 31Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?↑6pp51→57¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 4Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?↓3pp93→90¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in fed rate.
In fed rate
Related reading
Fed Rate Decision Heats Up: 56¢ Probability for a September Hike
The largest macro market today revolves around the Fed's September 2026 decision. The 'Hike by 25bps' contract sits at 56¢, implying a 56% chance of tightening. Over 1.7M contracts have traded across the rate decision complex, making it the most active macro event on the board. The hold-at-0bps market is trading at 41¢ with 1.2M volume alone.
Fed Rate Decision Markets See Massive Volume as September 2026 Meeting Approaches
The KXFEDDECISION contracts are the most heavily traded prediction markets overall, with over 500K volume on the 'hike 0bps' outcome. The market currently prices a 46% chance of no change and 53% for a 25bp hike, reflecting deep uncertainty about the Fed's next move.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.