What are the odds of a Fed rate cut?
Leader sits at 28% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 20%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
20¢
0 (0 bps)
Spread
8pp
contested
24h volume
$29.5M
liquid
Closes
Jun 17, 2026
0 days
Cross-venue
K12+P5
6pp gap
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 17¢ · Polymarket 23¢ · 6pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (17¢, 12 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (23¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
2 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 10% of their title tokens — “Will the Fed cut rates” vs “How many Fed rate cuts in 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the Fed cut rates
Will the Fed cut rates 0 times?
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
Will the Fed cut rates 1 times?
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
Will the Fed cut rates 2 times?
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
Will the Fed cut rates 3 times?
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T3
Will the Fed cut rates 4 times?
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T4
Will the Fed cut rates 5 times?
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T5
Will the Fed cut rates 6 times?
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T6
Will the Fed cut rates 7 times?
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T7
Will the Fed cut rates 9 times?
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T9
Will the Fed cut rates 0 times at emergency meetings?
KXEMERCUTS-26-T0
Will the Fed cut rates 8 times?
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T8
Will the Fed cut rates 1 times at emergency meetings?
KXEMERCUTS-26-T1
Will the Fed cut rates 2 times at emergency meetings?
KXEMERCUTS-26-T2
Will the Fed cut rates 3 times at emergency meetings?
KXEMERCUTS-26-T3
Will the Fed cut rates 4 times at emergency meetings?
KXEMERCUTS-26-T4
Cluster 2
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)
0xd4e77b…8527
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 11 (275 bps)
0x1adf07…1ae3
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 10 (250 bps)
0x757c14…bc87
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 9 (225 bps)
0x4ec6fc…248b
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 6 (150 bps)
0x4914bf…fe75
Analysis
Prediction markets overwhelmingly signal no Fed rate cuts for the remainder of 2026, with an 81% probability of zero cuts by year-end. There is a 91% likelihood that the Federal Reserve will refrain from implementing any emergency rate cuts throughout the year. The current Federal Funds Rate stands at 3.63%, reflecting a period of prolonged monetary stasis.
- ›81% chance of zero rate cuts
- ›91% chance of zero emergency cuts
- ›Fed Funds Rate at 3.63%
- ›Persistent interest rate stability
What moved the line
- Jul 18Will the Fed cut rates 1 times at emergency meetings?↑4pp1→5¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 19Will the Fed cut rates 1 times at emergency meetings?↓4pp5→1¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in fed rate
- Will the Fed cut rates in July 2026?last 42% · 1d
- Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 17, 2026last 96% · 6d
- Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.04% on Jul 17, 2026last 96% · 6d
- Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.29% on Jul 13, 2026last 97% · 10d
- Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 13, 2026last 84% · 10d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in fed rate.
In fed rate
Related reading
Markets Expect Fed to Hold Steady, But Bond Yields Rise
The markets are pricing a high probability of a Fed hold in July, but bond yields are rising, indicating a 'higher for longer' rate environment.
Fed expected to hold rates steady in July, CPI data in focus
The Fed July meeting is approaching, with markets pricing a 93% probability of no rate change. The 25bps hike contract is at 5¢, reflecting low odds. CPI data will be key to watch.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.