What are the odds of a US recession in 2026?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 22 contracts. Kalshi at 53%, Polymarket at 20% — a 33pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
53%
9 contracts
Polymarket
20%
13 contracts
Cross-venue gap
33pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2.2M
22 contracts
Closes
Jan 31, 2027
130 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 53¢ · Polymarket 20¢ · 33pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (20¢, 13 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (53¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
7 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 8% of their title tokens — “Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above” vs “US GDP growth in Q3 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above
Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above -0.4%?
KXUSRETAIL-26OCT15-T-0.4
Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above 0.0%?
KXUSRETAIL-26OCT15-T0.0
Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above 0.2%?
KXUSRETAIL-26OCT15-T0.2
Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above 0.6%?
KXUSRETAIL-26OCT15-T0.6
Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above 0.4%?
KXUSRETAIL-26OCT15-T0.4
Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above 1.0%?
KXUSRETAIL-26OCT15-T1.0
Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above -0.2%?
KXUSRETAIL-26OCT15-T-0.2
Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above 1.6%?
KXUSRETAIL-26OCT15-T1.6
Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above 1.4%?
KXUSRETAIL-26OCT15-T1.4
Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above 1.2%?
KXUSRETAIL-26OCT15-T1.2
Will United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 be above 0.8%?
KXUSRETAIL-26OCT15-T0.8
Cluster 2
US GDP growth in Q3 2026
Cluster 3
Will Milo Yiannopoulos visit the United States of America before
Cluster 4
US recession by end of 2026
US recession by end of 2026?
0xfdc73f…105d
Cluster 5
Will the IMF declare a global recession before 2027
Will the IMF declare a global recession before 2027?
KXIMFRECESS-27
Cluster 6
Will the number of U.S. states that formally adopt a binding state-level moratorium on data-center development be at least 3 in 2026
Cluster 7
UK Recession in 2026
UK Recession in 2026?
0xad8938…56fd
Analysis
Current economic data does not indicate a recession, as the U.S. economy maintains growth with a 2.1% real GDP increase and a 4.1% unemployment rate. Prediction markets currently lean toward positive retail sales growth for September 2026, with a 70% implied probability that month-over-month retail sales will remain positive at 0.0% or higher. Overall market indicators like the 10Y-2Y Treasury spread at 0.25% suggest an environment that is currently avoiding immediate recessionary contraction.
- ›Real GDP growth of 2.1%
- ›Unemployment rate at 4.1%
- ›70% chance of positive retail sales
- ›Positive 10Y-2Y yield spread
Recently closed in recession
- Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q1 2026 be above 12.5%last 79% · 0d
- What will China GDP growth be in 2026?last 43% · 1d
- Will Trump order lower tariffs on Canada before Dec 1, 2026last 64% · 11d
- Will Trump order new or increased tariffs on Canada before Dec 1, 2026last 66% · 11d
- Will headline PCE inflation for August 2026 be above 0.0%last 87% · 13d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in recession.
In recession
Related reading
Fear gauge slides 2.9% as recession fears recede
VIXY dropped 2.9% while HYG edged higher, indicating low fear and stable credit conditions. Markets are pricing minimal recession probability.
Copper crash signals recession fears as VIX jumps
Copper (CPER) dropped -2.37% to $38.27 while the VIX rose +0.87% to $17.49. This classic recession indicator combination has historically preceded economic contractions. Traders should watch for further copper weakness confirming demand destruction.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.