What are the odds of a US recession in 2026?
Analysis
Current economic data does not indicate a recession in the United States, as the economy continues to show positive payroll growth and a stable 4.3% unemployment rate. While the 10Y-2Y Treasury spread remains positive at 0.54%, indicating a lack of immediate inverted-yield-curve recession signals, ongoing inflationary pressure persists with CPI at 3.29% and the Federal Funds Rate at 3.64%. Financial indicators like the VIX at 17.5 and tight credit spreads suggest moderate market confidence rather than widespread distress.
- ›Unemployment rate of 4.3%
- ›Positive 10Y-2Y Treasury spread of 0.54%
- ›CPI inflation at 3.29%
- ›Nonfarm payroll growth of 178K monthly
- ›Stable High Yield OAS of 2.83%
Contracts
Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?: Before 2027
Will Bernie Sanders endorse Charles Booker in the 2026 United States Senate election in Kentucky before Nov 3, 2026?: Charles Booker
Will the United States acquire any territory not under its sovereignty (as of Issuance) before Jul 1, 2026?: Before Jul 2026
Will United States retail sales MoM for March 2026 be above 1.2%?: Above 1.2%
Will legislation appropriating at least $1 billion to the United States Coast Guard (USCG) for FY2026 become law before May 1, 2026?: Coast Guard
Will United States Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Shelter in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 426.0?: Above 426.0
Will United States retail sales MoM for March 2026 be above 1.0%?: Above 1.0%
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Nov 4, 2026?: Before Nov 4, 2026
Will United States - Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 6.70ㅤ?: Above 6.70ㅤ
Will United States retail sales MoM for March 2026 be above 0.4%?: Above 0.4%
Will United States Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Shelter in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 425.5?: Above 425.5
Will United States retail sales MoM for March 2026 be above 0.6%?: Above 0.6%
Will Michigan have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?: Michigan
Will Ohio have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?: Ohio
Will United States retail sales MoM for March 2026 be above 0.8%?: Above 0.8%
Will the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for April 2026 be above 3.6%?: Above 3.6%
Will Alaska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?: Alaska
Will Texas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?: Texas
Will Bernie Sanders endorse James Talarico in the 2026 United States Senate election in Texas before Nov 3, 2026?: James Talarico