What are the odds of a US recession in 2026?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 26% across 9 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
26%
9 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1.8M
9 contracts
Closes
Jan 31, 2027
223 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 9 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 14% of their title tokens — “US economic state at the end of 2026” vs “US x Cuba economic deal by”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
US economic state at the end of 2026
US economic state at the end of 2026?: Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
0x50e3ee…71d8
US economic state at the end of 2026?: Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
0x4e54fc…98f6
US economic state at the end of 2026?: Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
0x53ba15…cae0
US economic state at the end of 2026?: Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
0x9b1804…9774
Cluster 2
US x Cuba economic deal by
Cluster 3
US recession by end of 2026
US recession by end of 2026?
0xfdc73f…105d
Cluster 4
UK Recession in 2026
UK Recession in 2026?
0xad8938…56fd
Analysis
Prediction markets currently assign a low 13% probability to a recession occurring in the United States by the end of 2026. While the economy faces uncertainty, market sentiment currently favors an overheating scenario over a downturn, with a 48% chance of continued growth featuring unemployment below 5% and inflation at or above 3.5%. This outlook aligns with current government data showing a 4.3% unemployment rate and 2.57% real GDP growth as of early 2026.
- ›13% recession probability by year-end
- ›48% probability of economic overheating
- ›Low 10% chance of high unemployment slack
- ›Current unemployment at 4.3%
- ›Real GDP growth at 2.57%
What moved the line
- Jun 18Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)↑6pp27→33¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 17UK Recession in 2026?↓4pp38→34¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 18Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)↓3pp35→32¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in recession
- Will Canada inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 3.2%Above 2.6%last 86% · 1d
- Will legislation that terminates or otherwise limits global tariffs imposed by the President of the United States passed the House before Jul 1, 2026last 3% · 3d
- Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?: 2.5%+last 49% · 5d
- Germany GDP growth in Q2 2026?: 1.3%+last 54% · 5d
- South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q2 2026?: 4.0–4.4%last 42% · 5d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in recession.
In recession
Related reading
Trump-China Diplomacy: 75% Chance of Visit by May, Trade Deals Being Priced
Prediction markets price a 75% chance of Trump visiting China by May 2026, suggesting diplomatic resolution over trade war escalation despite ongoing market volatility around tariff fears.
Inflation 'Above 4%' Probability Crashes 21¢ as Oil Collapse Changes Inflation Outlook
The 'how high will inflation get in 2026: above 4%' contract collapsed -21¢ to 30¢ in a single session, making it one of the largest single-day moves in the recession/inflation cluster. The move appears directly connected to today's 7% oil price crash, which significantly reduces near-term inflation pressure.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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