What are the odds of a US recession in 2026?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 41% across 28 contracts. Kalshi at 61%, Polymarket at 18% — a 43pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
61%
15 contracts
Polymarket
18%
13 contracts
Cross-venue gap
43pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1.7M
28 contracts
Closes
Jan 31, 2027
182 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 61¢ · Polymarket 18¢ · 43pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (18¢, 13 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (61¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
12 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Japan Nominal GDP in 2026
Cluster 2
US GDP growth in Q3 2026
Cluster 3
India Nominal GDP in 2026
India Nominal GDP in 2026?
KXGDPNOM-IND26-4.4
India Nominal GDP in 2026?
KXGDPNOM-IND26-4.2
Cluster 4
Germany Nominal GDP in 2026
Germany Nominal GDP in 2026?
KXGDPNOM-GER26-5.1
Germany Nominal GDP in 2026?
KXGDPNOM-GER26-4.9
Cluster 5
China Nominal GDP in 2026
China Nominal GDP in 2026?
KXGDPNOM-CHN26-20.2
China Nominal GDP in 2026?
KXGDPNOM-CHN26-20.0
Cluster 6
Russia Nominal GDP in 2026
Russia Nominal GDP in 2026?
KXGDPNOM-RUS26-2.9
Russia Nominal GDP in 2026?
KXGDPNOM-RUS26-2.3
Cluster 7
US recession by end of 2026
US recession by end of 2026?
0xfdc73f…105d
Cluster 8
UK Recession in 2026
UK Recession in 2026?
0xad8938…56fd
Cluster 9
France Nominal GDP in 2026
France Nominal GDP in 2026?
KXGDPNOM-FRA26-3.4
Cluster 10
Brazil Nominal GDP in 2026
Brazil Nominal GDP in 2026?
KXGDPNOM-BRA26-2.4
Cluster 11
Mexico Nominal GDP in 2026
Mexico Nominal GDP in 2026?
KXGDPNOM-MEX26-2.1
Cluster 12
Canada Nominal GDP in 2026
Canada Nominal GDP in 2026?
KXGDPNOM-CAN26-2.3
Analysis
The United States is currently not in a recession, as evidenced by real GDP growth of 2.1% YoY and a stable unemployment rate of 4.2% as of June 2026. While official recession indicators remain positive, financial markets are closely monitoring the 10Y-2Y Treasury spread, which currently sits at 0.47%, reflecting a normalization of the yield curve from its previously inverted state.
- ›2.1% Real GDP growth
- ›4.2% Unemployment rate
- ›0.47% 10Y-2Y Treasury spread
- ›3.63% Federal Funds Rate
What moved the line
- Aug 3China Nominal GDP in 2026?↑47pp39→86¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 3China Nominal GDP in 2026?↑26pp60→86¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 3Russia Nominal GDP in 2026?↑18pp70→88¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 2Russia Nominal GDP in 2026?↑15pp7→22¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 3Russia Nominal GDP in 2026?↑12pp22→34¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in recession
- What will China GDP growth be in 2026?last 33% · 1d
- Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q1 2026 be above -1%last 80% · 9d
- Will Germany GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above -0.1%last 88% · 9d
- Will Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above -0.6%last 95% · 9d
- Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q1 2026 be above -0.2%last 91% · 9d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in recession.
In recession
Related reading
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Prediction markets price a 75% chance of Trump visiting China by May 2026, suggesting diplomatic resolution over trade war escalation despite ongoing market volatility around tariff fears.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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