Will the Fed cut rates in June 2026?
Leader sits at 96% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 95%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 3.50%
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
95¢
Above 2.75%
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$45K
liquid
Closes
Dec 9, 2026
138 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting?: Above 3.75%
KXFED-26JUL-T3.75
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?: Above 3.50%
KXFED-26SEP-T3.50
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?: Above 3.75%
KXFED-26DEC-T3.75
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?: Above 3.50%
KXFED-26DEC-T3.50
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?: Above 3.25%
KXFED-26DEC-T3.25
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?: Above 3.00%
KXFED-26DEC-T3.00
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?: Above 2.75%
KXFED-26DEC-T2.75
Analysis
The Federal Reserve held the policy rate at 3.63% as of July 2026, and markets currently view a year-end rate hike as more likely than not with a 62% implied probability. While June has already passed, the focus remains on the trajectory of rates; forward-looking guidance in the July FOMC statement is seen as unlikely, carrying only an 11% probability.
- ›Federal Funds Rate at 3.63%
- ›62% probability of a 2026 year-end hike
- ›11% likelihood of forward guidance in July FOMC
- ›Persistent inflation metrics
What moved the line
- Jul 22Above 3.75%↑18pp41→59¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 20Above 3.75%↓17pp48→31¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 18Above 3.75%↑13pp48→61¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 19Above 3.75%↓13pp61→48¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 21Above 3.75%↑10pp31→41¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in fed rate
- What are the odds of a Fed rate cut?last 19% · 1d
- Will the Fed cut rates in July 2026?last 42% · 2d
- Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 17, 2026last 96% · 7d
- Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.04% on Jul 17, 2026last 96% · 7d
- Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.29% on Jul 13, 2026last 97% · 11d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Related reading
Markets Expect Fed to Hold Steady, But Bond Yields Rise
The markets are pricing a high probability of a Fed hold in July, but bond yields are rising, indicating a 'higher for longer' rate environment.
Fed expected to hold rates steady in July, CPI data in focus
The Fed July meeting is approaching, with markets pricing a 93% probability of no rate change. The 25bps hike contract is at 5¢, reflecting low odds. CPI data will be key to watch.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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