Will the Fed cut rates in June 2026?
Leader sits at 97% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 93%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 3.00%
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
93¢
Above 3.25%
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$2
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 9, 2026
119 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?: Above 3.75%
KXFED-26DEC-T3.75
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?: Above 3.25%
KXFED-26DEC-T3.25
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?: Above 3.00%
KXFED-26DEC-T3.00
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?: Above 3.50%
KXFED-26DEC-T3.50
Analysis
The Federal Reserve did not implement a rate cut in June 2026, as the federal funds rate stood at 3.63% as of July 2026. Current prediction markets suggest the rate will likely remain above 3.50% through the end of the year, with an 80% probability of staying above that threshold following the December meeting. Markets indicate a very low likelihood of rates dropping significantly below current levels by the end of 2026.
- ›Current Fed funds rate at 3.63%
- ›80% probability rate stays above 3.50% through December
- ›Minimal market expectations for aggressive cutting
- ›Stable monetary policy environment
What moved the line
- Aug 8Above 3.75%↓8pp65→57¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 9Above 3.50%↓3pp82→79¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in fed rate
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Related reading
Fed Rate Decision: A Pivot Point for Markets
The highest-volume market overall is the Fed's September 2026 rate decision. The 63¢ price for a 'no hike' suggests a strong consensus for a pause, but the 36¢ for a 25bps hike indicates significant tail risk.
Fed September Meeting in Focus; 0 bps Hike at 49¢ on 351k Volume
September 2026 FOMC meeting markets show near 50/50 odds of a hike vs hold, with total volume over 400,000. The cumulative rate cut count market (KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC) prices zero cuts at 86¢.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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