Will the Fed cut rates in June 2026?
Kalshi
14 contracts
Polymarket
6 contracts
Analysis
Prediction markets indicate a very high likelihood, currently over 88%, that the federal funds rate will remain above 3.50% following the June 17, 2026, meeting. With the current effective federal funds rate at 3.64%, markets are heavily pricing in either a rate hold or a very limited path to further cutting by mid-year. The consensus expectation is that the upper bound will remain comfortably above 3.50%, as contracts for higher thresholds are currently seeing very low probability pricing.
- ›Fed funds rate at 3.64%
- ›88% probability rate remains above 3.50% in June
- ›1% chance rate stays above 4.00% in June
- ›Strong evidence for persistent rate levels
Contracts
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their June 2026 meeting?: Cut 25bps
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 1 (25 bps)
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 2 (50 bps)
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their June 2026 meeting?: Fed maintains rate
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 3 (75 bps)
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 4 (100 bps)
Fed rate cut by...?: June Meeting
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their July 2026 meeting?: Cut 25bps
Will the Fed cut rates more than 25 bps in 2026?
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?: Cut 25bps
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?: Cut 25bps
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting?: Cut 25bps
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting?: Cut >25bps
Will Bank of Canada Cut rates by 25bps at their June 2026 meeting?: Cut 25bps
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their June 2027 meeting?: Cut >25bps
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their June 2027 meeting?: Cut 25bps
Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for June 30, 2026 be above 3.25%?: Above 3.25%
Will Bank of Canada Cut rates by >25bps at their June 2026 meeting?: Cut >25bps
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their July 2026 meeting?: Cut >25bps