Will the Fed cut rates in June 2026?
Leader sits at 97% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 97%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 3.50%
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
97¢
Above 3.25%
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 9, 2026
80 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?: Above 3.50%
KXFED-26DEC-T3.50
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?: Above 3.25%
KXFED-26DEC-T3.25
Analysis
The federal funds rate is currently 3.63%, and prediction markets assign a greater than 50% probability that the upper bound will remain above 4.00% through the end of October 2026. Data suggests the interest rate environment will remain relatively elevated for the remainder of the year, with markets pricing in near-certainty that rates will stay above 3.50% at the December meeting.
- ›Current Federal Funds Rate at 3.63%
- ›Market-implied 57% chance of rates above 4.00% in late October
- ›Near 98% certainty of rates remaining above 3.50% through December
- ›Strong evidence against near-term rate cuts
What moved the line
- Sep 17Above 3.50%↑4pp93→97¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In fed rate
Related reading
Fed Rate Decision Heats Up: 56¢ Probability for a September Hike
The largest macro market today revolves around the Fed's September 2026 decision. The 'Hike by 25bps' contract sits at 56¢, implying a 56% chance of tightening. Over 1.7M contracts have traded across the rate decision complex, making it the most active macro event on the board. The hold-at-0bps market is trading at 41¢ with 1.2M volume alone.
Fed Rate Decision Markets See Massive Volume as September 2026 Meeting Approaches
The KXFEDDECISION contracts are the most heavily traded prediction markets overall, with over 500K volume on the 'hike 0bps' outcome. The market currently prices a 46% chance of no change and 53% for a 25bp hike, reflecting deep uncertainty about the Fed's next move.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.