Will the Fed cut rates in June 2026?
Leader sits at 96% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 94%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 3.25%
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
94¢
Above 3.50%
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$532
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 9, 2026
185 days
Venue
Kalshi
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting?: Above 3.50%
KXFED-26JUL-T3.50
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?: Above 3.50%
KXFED-26DEC-T3.50
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?: Above 3.25%
KXFED-26DEC-T3.25
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting?: Above 3.75%
KXFED-26JUL-T3.75
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting?: Above 3.25%
KXFED-26JUL-T3.25
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?: Above 3.75%
KXFED-26DEC-T3.75
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?: Above 3.00%
KXFED-26DEC-T3.00
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?: Above 3.50%
KXFED-26SEP-T3.50
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?: Above 2.75%
KXFED-26DEC-T2.75
Analysis
The federal funds rate is currently 3.63%, and prediction markets indicate there is effectively no chance of a rate cut below 2.75% at the June 17, 2026 meeting. Market pricing at 99% for a rate above 2.75% suggests that investors anticipate interest rates will remain significantly elevated, far above any levels consistent with a June cut.
- ›Current Fed funds rate 3.63%
- ›99% probability rates stay above 2.75%
- ›Persistent elevated rate cycle
- ›Market expectations of monetary stasis
What moved the line
- Jun 4Above 3.50%↓14pp93→79¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 4Above 3.75%↑10pp35→45¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2Above 3.50%↑8pp78→86¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 3Above 3.50%↑7pp64→71¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 4Above 3.50%↓7pp71→64¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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