Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC
Leader sits at 38% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 33%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
East Bengal FC
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
33¢
Mumbai City FC
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 5, 2026
1 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC
Analysis
This probability indicates that East Bengal FC has roughly a 39% chance of winning their match against Mumbai City FC, based on current market pricing across multiple prediction contracts. The probability reflects the relative strength assessments of both teams, with Mumbai City FC favored at the implied odds. Key drivers of this level include each team's recent form, head-to-head history, squad injuries or absences, and home-field advantage if applicable. The primary catalyst resolving this uncertainty will be the match result itself; betting activity and probability shifts beforehand may reflect team news, lineup announcements, or updated injury reports. The 33% runner-up contract suggests meaningful uncertainty remains, with roughly one-quarter of probability mass distributed among other outcomes like draws or Mumbai City victory.
- ›East Bengal FC's win probability (39%) trails the implied probability of a Mumbai City FC victory, indicating bookmakers perceive the home or stronger-positioned side as more likely to prevail
- ›Recent league form, goal differential, and head-to-head records between the two clubs would mechanically shift this probability if one team is on an ascendant trajectory while the other declines
- ›Announced team lineups, confirmed injuries to key players, and squad availability 24-48 hours before kickoff typically trigger repricing in betting markets
- ›Home-field advantage, if applicable, historically favors the host in Indian Super League matches and would be reflected in the current odds
- ›Contract volume and price spread across the three outcome possibilities ($20 24h volume on one Indian football outcome suggests relatively thin liquidity, meaning limited wagering activity could create volatility
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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