SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 9 outcomes9 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 2 min agoCloses May 5, 2026 · 1d19pp · 10h

Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC - More Markets

Leader sits at 73% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 54%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

73%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 54¢leader 73¢

Outcomes

9

winner-take-all

Runner-up

54¢

Both Teams to Score

Spread

19pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

May 5, 2026

1 days

Venue

Polymarket

9 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayBoth Teams to Score: 53% (3 days, 3 points)Both Teams to Score: 53% on 2026-05-03O/U 2.5: 47% on 2026-05-02O/U 3.5: 28% (3 days, 2 points)O/U 3.5: 28% on 2026-05-03
Both Teams to Score53¢O/U 2.547¢O/U 3.528¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 3d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

The 54% probability reflects market expectation that both Mumbai City FC and East Bengal FC will score in their upcoming match. This outcome is priced as more likely than any alternative single result tracked on these contracts. The probability appears driven by recent offensive performance patterns in Indian Super League matches and the relative strength of both teams' attacking units against their defensive counterparts. The match itself will resolve this uncertainty; the outcome depends on whether each team manages to find the net at least once, which hinges on execution in the final third, defensive stability, and team tactics on the day. Historical scoring frequency in similar matchups and current form of key strikers and defensive lines will be critical to whether the actual result aligns with or diverges from this 54% estimate.

  • Both teams' goal-scoring records in recent ISL fixtures compared to their opponents' defensive records
  • The absence of recent injury updates for key attackers or defensive players on either side
  • Current league table position and goal differential trends for Mumbai City FC and East Bengal FC
  • Head-to-head scoring patterns in previous meetings between these two clubs
  • Starting lineups and tactical setup confirmed closer to or at match time, which could shift defensive vulnerability

What moved the line

  • May 3Mumbai City FC (-2.5)7pp1421¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2East Bengal FC (-2.5)6pp1913¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2Mumbai City FC (-2.5)3pp1714¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.