Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC - More Markets
Leader sits at 73% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 54%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
54¢
Both Teams to Score
Spread
19pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 5, 2026
1 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC - More Markets
Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC - More Markets: East Bengal FC (-1.5)
0x1ef468…3cd4
Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x4d7c4d…2b66
Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x8a0a7c…9c4e
Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x1c8aa1…811a
Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC - More Markets: Mumbai City FC (-1.5)
0x859e14…c478
Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x53fd8b…a3a0
Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xc8761a…bc65
Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC - More Markets: East Bengal FC (-2.5)
0x39ca4c…9a02
Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC - More Markets: Mumbai City FC (-2.5)
0x870a50…7744
Analysis
The 54% probability reflects market expectation that both Mumbai City FC and East Bengal FC will score in their upcoming match. This outcome is priced as more likely than any alternative single result tracked on these contracts. The probability appears driven by recent offensive performance patterns in Indian Super League matches and the relative strength of both teams' attacking units against their defensive counterparts. The match itself will resolve this uncertainty; the outcome depends on whether each team manages to find the net at least once, which hinges on execution in the final third, defensive stability, and team tactics on the day. Historical scoring frequency in similar matchups and current form of key strikers and defensive lines will be critical to whether the actual result aligns with or diverges from this 54% estimate.
- ›Both teams' goal-scoring records in recent ISL fixtures compared to their opponents' defensive records
- ›The absence of recent injury updates for key attackers or defensive players on either side
- ›Current league table position and goal differential trends for Mumbai City FC and East Bengal FC
- ›Head-to-head scoring patterns in previous meetings between these two clubs
- ›Starting lineups and tactical setup confirmed closer to or at match time, which could shift defensive vulnerability
What moved the line
- May 3Mumbai City FC (-2.5)↑7pp14→21¢ · Polymarket
- May 2East Bengal FC (-2.5)↓6pp19→13¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Mumbai City FC (-2.5)↓3pp17→14¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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