18 contractsKalshirefreshed 1 min agoCloses Jun 1, 2026 · 28d

Will Kyle Larson finish in the top 5 at NASCAR Jack Link's 500

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 23% across 18 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

23%

0%50%100%

Kalshi

23%

18 contracts

Polymarket

—

not bound

Cross-venue gap

—

single venue

24h move

—

no pin

24h volume

$10K

18 contracts

Closes

Jun 1, 2026

28 days

Top contract →Read as answer

30-day trend

Aggregate of 18 contracts · 5d

Bracket families

18 clusters across 18 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Chase Elliott finish in the top 5 at NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY

1 contract$4K

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will Chase Elliott finish in the top 5 at NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY?: Chase Elliott

KXNASCARTOP5-WR4PBL26-CHEL

28¢+10pp$4KK→

Cluster 2

Will Denny Hamlin finish in the top 5 at NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY

1 contract$1K

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will Denny Hamlin finish in the top 5 at NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY?: Denny Hamlin

KXNASCARTOP5-WR4PBL26-DEHA

49¢+11pp$1KK→

Cluster 3

Will Christopher Bell finish in the top 5 at NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY

1 contract$896

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will Christopher Bell finish in the top 5 at NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY?: Christopher Bell

KXNASCARTOP5-WR4PBL26-CHBE

34¢−7pp$896K→

Cluster 4

Will Kyle Larson finish in the top 5 at NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY

1 contract$737

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will Kyle Larson finish in the top 5 at NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY?: Kyle Larson

KXNASCARTOP5-WR4PBL26-KYLA

43¢+6pp$737K→

Cluster 5

Will Carson Hocevar finish in the top 5 at NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY

1 contract$600

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will Carson Hocevar finish in the top 5 at NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY?: Carson Hocevar

KXNASCARTOP5-WR4PBL26-CAHO

36¢+1pp$600K→

Cluster 6

Will Tyler Reddick finish in the top 5 at NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY

1 contract$521

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will Tyler Reddick finish in the top 5 at NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY?: Tyler Reddick

KXNASCARTOP5-WR4PBL26-TYRE

50¢+16pp$521K→

Cluster 7

Will Chris Buescher finish in the top 5 at NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY

1 contract$488

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will Chris Buescher finish in the top 5 at NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY?: Chris Buescher

KXNASCARTOP5-WR4PBL26-CHBU

30¢+1pp$488K→

Cluster 8

Will Kyle Busch finish in the top 5 at NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY

1 contract$473

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will Kyle Busch finish in the top 5 at NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY?: Kyle Busch

KXNASCARTOP5-WR4PBL26-KYBU

6¢+15pp$473K→

Cluster 9

Will Bubba Wallace finish in the top 5 at NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY

1 contract$347

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will Bubba Wallace finish in the top 5 at NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY?: Bubba Wallace

KXNASCARTOP5-WR4PBL26-BUWA

20¢−6pp$347K→

Cluster 10

Will William Byron finish in the top 5 at NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY

1 contract$279

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will William Byron finish in the top 5 at NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY?: William Byron

KXNASCARTOP5-WR4PBL26-WIBY

36¢+2pp$279K→

Cluster 11

Will Ty Gibbs finish in the top 5 at NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY

1 contract$120

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will Ty Gibbs finish in the top 5 at NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY?: Ty Gibbs

KXNASCARTOP5-WR4PBL26-TYGI

26¢+5pp$120K→

Cluster 12

Will Brad Keselowski finish in the top 5 at NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY

1 contract$103

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will Brad Keselowski finish in the top 5 at NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY?: Brad Keselowski

KXNASCARTOP5-WR4PBL26-BRKE

9¢−12pp$103K→

Cluster 13

Will John H. Nemechek finish in the top 5 at NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY

1 contract$31

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will John H. Nemechek finish in the top 5 at NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY?: John H. Nemechek

KXNASCARTOP5-WR4PBL26-JONE

3¢—$31K→

Cluster 14

Will Alex Bowman finish in the top 5 at NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY

1 contract$20

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will Alex Bowman finish in the top 5 at NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY?: Alex Bowman

KXNASCARTOP5-WR4PBL26-ALBO

10¢±0$20K→

Cluster 15

Will Erik Jones finish in the top 5 at NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY

1 contract$12

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will Erik Jones finish in the top 5 at NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY?: Erik Jones

KXNASCARTOP5-WR4PBL26-ERJO

8¢—$12K→

Cluster 16

Will Ricky Stenhouse finish in the top 5 at NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY

1 contract$7

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will Ricky Stenhouse finish in the top 5 at NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY?: Ricky Stenhouse

KXNASCARTOP5-WR4PBL26-RIST

5¢—$7K→

Cluster 17

Will Austin Dillon finish in the top 5 at NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY

1 contract$7

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will Austin Dillon finish in the top 5 at NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY?: Austin Dillon

KXNASCARTOP5-WR4PBL26-AUDI

11¢—$7K→

Cluster 18

Will Cole Custer finish in the top 5 at NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY

1 contract$0

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will Cole Custer finish in the top 5 at NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY?: Cole Custer

KXNASCARTOP5-WR4PBL26-COCU

5¢—$0K→

What moved the line

May 1Tyler Reddick↓23pp42→19¢ · Kalshi
May 3Tyler Reddick↑16pp19→35¢ · Kalshi
May 2Kyle Busch↑15pp4→19¢ · Kalshi
May 2Chase Elliott↓14pp25→11¢ · Kalshi
May 1Kyle Larson↓13pp42→29¢ · Kalshi

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.

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