SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 2 outcomes2 contractsKalshirefreshed 7 min agoCloses Apr 12, 2027 · 344d

Who will win Coach of the Year

Leader sits at 94% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

94%

Joe Mazzulla

runner-up 4¢leader 94¢

Outcomes

2

winner-take-all

Runner-up

JB Bickerstaff

Spread

90pp

dominant leader

24h volume

$91K

liquid

Closes

Apr 12, 2027

344 days

Venue

Kalshi

2 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayJoe Mazzulla: 95% (26 days, 26 points)Joe Mazzulla: 95% on 2026-05-03JB Bickerstaff: 3% (26 days, 23 points)JB Bickerstaff: 3% on 2026-05-02
Joe Mazzulla95¢JB Bickerstaff3¢
Top 2 candidates by current price · 26d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

Joe Mazzulla is priced at 94% to win Coach of the Year, reflecting strong confidence from prediction market participants that he will receive the award. This probability represents traders' assessment of his likelihood compared to other candidates. The high probability reflects Mazzulla's recent coaching performance and recognition in the 2025-26 season, while the 6-point gap to alternatives suggests some residual uncertainty about voting outcomes or competing candidates' credentials. The award will be resolved when the official Coach of the Year is announced, typically in late spring following the regular season. Market participants are predominantly backing Mazzulla, though the 24-hour volume on the JB Bickerstaff contract ($75,270) exceeds that of Mazzulla's contract, potentially indicating active debate about whether the gap should narrow.

  • Joe Mazzulla's team performance and win-loss record relative to other coaches' records during the 2025-26 regular season
  • Historical voting patterns in Coach of the Year selection and whether voters favor record, improvement margin, or narrative factors
  • Emergence of competing candidates with strong records or notable turnarounds that could consolidate the 6% alternative probability
  • The official announcement date and voting body composition, which determines when this market resolves to certainty
  • Contract volume disparity ($75,270 on Bickerstaff vs. $36,019 on Mazzulla in 24 hours) suggesting active traders may view the gap as unsustainably wide

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

Lateral coverage

Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.

This page aggregates 2 contracts (94% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 7 min ago.