Netanyahu out by...
Leader sits at 44% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 5%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
December 31
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
5¢
June 30
Spread
39pp
contested
24h volume
$15K
liquid
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
241 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Netanyahu out by
Netanyahu out by...?: June 30
0x865303…3cce
Netanyahu out by...?: December 31
0xd1796c…8c96
Analysis
The 44% probability reflects market pricing that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will leave office by June 30, 2026. This assessment is driven by ongoing legal challenges against Netanyahu, including his corruption trial which continues through 2026, and political pressure within Israel's coalition government. The primary catalyst for resolution will be developments in the trial itself—conviction, acquittal, or significant procedural changes could dramatically shift expectations. Coalition stability also matters: any collapse of the current government arrangement could accelerate or delay his departure. The relatively high probability compared to other global leaders reflects the combination of active legal proceedings and the inherent fragility of Israeli coalition governments. Market pricing suggests roughly 2-in-5 odds, not certainty, that this transition occurs within the specified timeframe.
- ›Netanyahu's ongoing criminal trial is scheduled for continued hearings through mid-2026; major verdict developments or legal setbacks would directly impact removal probability
- ›Israeli coalition government stability depends on maintaining support from multiple parties with conflicting priorities; any significant coalition fracture would materially increase departure likelihood
- ›The June 30 deadline provides 13-14 months for legal conclusions or political shifts that could force a transition; markets are pricing meaningful but non-majority probability
- ›Comparative market pricing shows 44% for Netanyahu by June 30 versus only 3% for Saudi Arabia's Mohammed bin Salman by the same date, reflecting substantially different political risk profiles
- ›Historical precedent: Israeli prime ministers have faced removal or departure during legal proceedings, though such outcomes remain uncommon
What moved the line
- May 2June 30↓23pp28→5¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28June 30↑21pp7→28¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (44% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 7 min ago.