Top US Netflix Show on May 4, 2026
Leader sits at 4% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 3%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Running Point: Season 2
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
3¢
Man on Fire: Season 1
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$44K
liquid
Closes
May 5, 2026
1 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Top US Netflix Show on May 4, 2026
Analysis
This contract predicts which show will rank as the top series on Netflix's US charts on May 4, 2026. Man on Fire: Season 1 currently leads at 4%, suggesting traders assign low probability to any single show dominating the charts that specific day. Netflix rankings shift frequently based on release timing, viewing patterns, and algorithm changes. The market is pricing in substantial uncertainty around which titles will trend, with the top outcome below 5%. Factors that would move this probability include the actual release schedule for Netflix originals in early May, competing platforms' releases, and real-time US viewership data as May 4 approaches. Resolution occurs when Netflix publishes official top-10 rankings for that date.
- ›Man on Fire: Season 1 has the highest current bid at 4%, but second-place Running Point: Season 2 trades at 27% on the global chart, indicating fragmentation across markets and uncertainty about US-specific performance
- ›Netflix's US top-show rankings update daily and depend on algorithmic weighting of hours watched, subscriber engagement, and new releases—any major drop or unexpected surge in a competing title could shift the leader
- ›The contract resolves May 4, 2026, giving approximately one day for final market adjustment; current low probabilities suggest no show has overwhelming prediction consensus for that specific date
- ›Trading volume of $33,956 in 24 hours on the leader indicates moderate but not exceptional liquidity for a binary outcome market
- ›The 1% gap between the leader (4%) and runner-up (3%) suggests marginal differentiation between top contenders rather than a clear consensus favorite
What moved the line
- Apr 30Man on Fire: Season 1↑18pp12→30¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Man on Fire: Season 1↓16pp29→13¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Running Point: Season 2↓14pp22→8¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Man on Fire: Season 1↓9pp13→4¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Running Point: Season 2↓4pp8→4¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (4% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 11 min ago.