New York City FC vs. FC Cincinnati
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 36% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 35%, Polymarket at 37%.
Implied probability
Kalshi
35%
8 contracts
Polymarket
37%
12 contracts
Cross-venue gap
2pp
tight
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$37K
20 contracts
Top contract
25¢
$22K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 35¢ · Polymarket 37¢ · 2pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (35¢, 8 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (37¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
4 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
New York City
New York City vs DC United Winner?: DC United
KXMLSGAME-26MAY03NYCDCU-DCU
New York City vs DC United Winner?: New York City
KXMLSGAME-26MAY03NYCDCU-NYC
New York City vs DC United Winner?: Tie
KXMLSGAME-26MAY03NYCDCU-TIE
New York City wins by over 1.5 goals?: New York City wins by over 1.5 goals
KXMLSSPREAD-26MAY03NYCDCU-NYC1
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC: Draw (New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC)
0x5a91d9…bd67
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x0e25b5…6674
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x087e96…4031
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: New York City FC (-1.5)
0x52ecc5…1539
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xfb53dd…2bf6
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: Los Angeles FC (-1.5)
0xe4ead2…9aca
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x3b1359…c2a6
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: Los Angeles FC (-2.5)
0x8cd527…d5dd
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC: New York City FC
0x07aa44…0a4c
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x361d08…fcba
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: New York City FC (-2.5)
0x749d60…214e
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC: Los Angeles FC
0x48b1ea…7948
Cluster 2
DC United at New York City: Totals: Over
Cluster 3
Will Oklahoma City vs New York be the matchup in the 2025-26 Pro Basketball Finals
Cluster 4
will it rain in new york city on sunday
Will it **rain** in New York City on Sunday?: Rain in NYC
KXRAINNYC-26MAY03-T0
What moved the line
- May 3Los Angeles FC↑10pp18→28¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Oklahoma City vs New York↑8pp18→26¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Draw (New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC)↑8pp18→26¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Rain in NYC↑7pp2→9¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Oklahoma City vs New York↑6pp10→16¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 7 min ago.