New York City FC vs. FC Cincinnati - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 37% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 33%, Polymarket at 40% — a 7pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
33%
8 contracts
Polymarket
40%
12 contracts
Cross-venue gap
7pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$238K
20 contracts
Top contract
68¢
$191K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 33¢ · Polymarket 40¢ · 7pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (33¢, 8 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (40¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
5 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC” vs “Baltimore vs New York Y”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x087e96…4031
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC: Los Angeles FC
0x48b1ea…7948
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC: New York City FC
0x07aa44…0a4c
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC: Draw (New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC)
0x5a91d9…bd67
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: New York City FC (-1.5)
0x52ecc5…1539
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: Los Angeles FC (-1.5)
0xe4ead2…9aca
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x3b1359…c2a6
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x0e25b5…6674
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x361d08…fcba
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: New York City FC (-2.5)
0x749d60…214e
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: Los Angeles FC (-2.5)
0x8cd527…d5dd
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xfb53dd…2bf6
Cluster 2
Baltimore vs New York Y
Baltimore vs New York Y Winner?: New York Y
KXMLBGAME-26MAY031335BALNYY-NYY
Baltimore vs New York Y Winner?: Baltimore
KXMLBGAME-26MAY031335BALNYY-BAL
Baltimore vs New York Y Total Runs?: Over 8.5 runs scored
KXMLBTOTAL-26MAY031335BALNYY-9
Baltimore vs New York Y Winner?: New York Y
KXMLBGAME-26MAY041905BALNYY-NYY
Cluster 3
Will New York City experience population
Will New York City experience population increase 3% or more during 2025-2027?: Increase 3% or more
KXPOPCHANGENYC-28JUN01-NYC-3-NA
Will New York City experience population decrease 3% or more during 2025-2027?: Decrease 3% or more
KXPOPCHANGENYC-28JUN01-NYC-3-NAN
Cluster 4
Will Oklahoma City vs New York be the matchup in the 2025-26 Pro Basketball Finals
Cluster 5
will it rain in new york city on sunday
Will it **rain** in New York City on Sunday?: Rain in NYC
KXRAINNYC-26MAY03-T0
What moved the line
- May 3Los Angeles FC↑10pp18→28¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Oklahoma City vs New York↑8pp18→26¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Draw (New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC)↑8pp18→26¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Rain in NYC↑7pp2→9¢ · Kalshi
- May 2New York Y↑7pp49→56¢ · Kalshi
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 8 min ago.