New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC
Leader sits at 49% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 27%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
New York City FC
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
27¢
Draw (New York City FC vs. L
Spread
22pp
contested
24h volume
$5
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC
Analysis
This 50% probability reflects market expectations that New York M will win an upcoming matchup against Los Angeles A. The leading contract prices New York M's victory at 50%, while Los Angeles A is priced at 45%, indicating slight implied confidence in New York M based on current form, roster composition, or recent performance. Key drivers of this level include matchup history, recent team performance trends, and injury status of key players. The primary catalyst for movement will be the scheduled game itself—once played, the outcome resolves the uncertainty entirely. Secondary factors include any roster changes or injury updates that emerge before game time, which could shift the probabilities in either direction based on team strength assessments.
- ›New York M contract trades at 54¢ on Kalshi while Los Angeles A contract trades at 45¢, indicating market participants assign higher probability to a New York M victory
- ›Total runs markets show 54¢ for Over 8.5 runs but only 21¢ for Over 12.5 runs, suggesting expectation of moderate offensive output rather than high-scoring game
- ›24-hour trading volumes vary significantly across contracts ($9,610 to $363), with lower volumes on extreme outcomes indicating less consensus at price extremes
- ›Leader holds 50% implied probability while runner-up sits at 35%, leaving roughly 15% probability unaccounted for across three-way outcome structure
- ›Kalshi platform shows these are active markets with recent 24-hour trading, suggesting prices reflect current team information rather than stale data
What moved the line
- May 3Los Angeles FC↑10pp18→28¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Draw (New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC)↑8pp18→26¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.