SimpleFunctions
20 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 9 min ago

Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 20 Polymarket contracts.

Implied probability

31%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

not bound

Polymarket

31%

20 contracts

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$827

20 contracts

Top contract

48¢

$298 · Polymarket

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 31% (8 days, 8 points)Aggregate: 31% on 2026-05-03
Aggregate of 20 contracts · 8d

Bracket families

10 clusters across 20 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 10% of their title tokens — “Fujieda MYFC vs. Fukushima United FC - More Markets” vs “Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

Fujieda MYFC vs. Fukushima United FC - More Markets

4 contracts$0

Cluster 2

Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC

3 contracts$293

Cluster 3

CA Rosario Central vs. Club Libertad - More Markets

3 contracts$0

Cluster 4

FC Imabari vs. Kōchi United SC - More Markets: O/U

3 contracts$0

Cluster 5

United States vs. Paraguay

2 contracts$304

Cluster 6

EPL: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Newcastle United

1 contract$229

Cluster 7

Universidad Central de Venezuela FC vs. Independiente del Valle - More Markets: O/U 4.5

1 contract$0

Cluster 8

CA Barracas Central vs. Club Olimpia: Draw

1 contract$0

Cluster 9

Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: O/U 4.5

1 contract$0

Cluster 10

A League Soccer: Winner: Newcastle Jets

1 contract$0

What moved the line

  • May 217th Place (Relegation Survivor): Newcastle United17pp225¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2Incheon United FC (-2.5)17pp3518¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Incheon United FC4pp3228¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3CA Rosario Central (-2.5)4pp1923¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 9 min ago.