12 contractsKalshirefreshed 8 min ago

Racing Louisville vs Orlando Winner

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 27% across 12 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

27%

0%50%100%

Kalshi

27%

12 contracts

Polymarket

—

not bound

Cross-venue gap

—

single venue

24h move

—

no pin

24h volume

$2K

12 contracts

Top contract

59¢

$842 · Kalshi

Top contract →Read as answer

30-day trend

Aggregate of 12 contracts · 4d

Bracket families

4 clusters across 12 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 13% of their title tokens — “Chicago vs Portland Thorns Winner” vs “Boston Legacy FC vs Denver Summit FC Winner”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

Chicago vs Portland Thorns Winner

3 contracts$1K

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Chicago vs Portland Thorns Winner?: Portland Thorns

KXNWSLGAME-26MAY03CHIPTH-PTH

59¢+5pp$842K→

Chicago vs Portland Thorns Winner?: Chicago

KXNWSLGAME-26MAY03CHIPTH-CHI

16¢+3pp$192K→

Chicago vs Portland Thorns Winner?: Tie

KXNWSLGAME-26MAY03CHIPTH-TIE

21¢+6pp$83K→

Cluster 2

Boston Legacy FC vs Denver Summit FC Winner

3 contracts$300

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Boston Legacy FC vs Denver Summit FC Winner?: Denver Summit FC

KXNWSLGAME-26MAY03BOSDEN-DEN

33¢—$201K→

Boston Legacy FC vs Denver Summit FC Winner?: Tie

KXNWSLGAME-26MAY03BOSDEN-TIE

27¢+5pp$97K→

Boston Legacy FC vs Denver Summit FC Winner?: Boston Legacy FC

KXNWSLGAME-26MAY03BOSDEN-BOS

40¢+5pp$2K→

Cluster 3

San Diego Wave FC vs Bay FC Winner

3 contracts$89

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

San Diego Wave FC vs Bay FC Winner?: Bay FC

KXNWSLGAME-26MAY03SANBAY-BAY

13¢+2pp$86K→

San Diego Wave FC vs Bay FC Winner?: San Diego Wave FC

KXNWSLGAME-26MAY03SANBAY-SAN

67¢+52pp$3K→

San Diego Wave FC vs Bay FC Winner?: Tie

KXNWSLGAME-26MAY03SANBAY-TIE

17¢+8pp$0K→

Cluster 4

Gotham vs Racing Louisville Winner

3 contracts$6

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Gotham vs Racing Louisville Winner?: Racing Louisville

KXNWSLGAME-26MAY03GOTRAC-RAC

11¢+3pp$4K→

Gotham vs Racing Louisville Winner?: Gotham

KXNWSLGAME-26MAY03GOTRAC-GOT

11¢+1pp$2K→

Gotham vs Racing Louisville Winner?: Tie

KXNWSLGAME-26MAY03GOTRAC-TIE

10¢+3pp$0K→

What moved the line

May 3San Diego Wave FC↑52pp14→66¢ · Kalshi
May 2Portland Thorns↑13pp38→51¢ · Kalshi
May 3Tie↑8pp6→14¢ · Kalshi
May 3Tie↑6pp15→21¢ · Kalshi
May 3Portland Thorns↑5pp51→56¢ · Kalshi

Adjacent prediction questions.

In general

Albirex Niigata vs. Kamatamare Sanuki - More Markets42%What will Apple Inc. say during their next earnings call58%Will San Diego win at least 75 games this season42%Atlanta United FC vs. New England Revolution33%Bucheon FC 1995 vs. Gimcheon Sangmu FC - More Markets26%San Diego FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets41%

Browse all prediction questions →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 8 min ago.

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