Odisha FC vs. Bengaluru FC
Leader sits at 48% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 27%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Bengaluru FC
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
27¢
Draw (Odisha FC vs. Bengalur
Spread
21pp
contested
24h volume
$72
thin orderbook
Closes
May 4, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Odisha FC vs. Bengaluru FC
Analysis
The 39% probability reflects market expectations that the Odisha FC vs. Bengaluru FC match will end in a draw. Markets currently see a draw as the most likely outcome, with a Bengaluru FC win priced at 36%, suggesting these teams are viewed as closely matched. The probability is driven primarily by historical head-to-head performance and recent form of both sides in the Indian Super League. Secondary factors include home-field advantage, injury status, and lineup composition closer to match day. The outcome will be determined when the fixture is played, making the actual result the critical catalyst that resolves all market uncertainty. Traders are positioned relatively close together across outcomes, indicating genuine uncertainty rather than overwhelming consensus.
- ›Historical draw frequency between these teams and their typical match patterns in ISL competition
- ›Current league standings, recent win-loss records, and goal-scoring differential for Odisha FC and Bengaluru FC
- ›Team news including confirmed injuries, suspensions, or significant lineup changes announced before kickoff
- ›Home venue performance record, as one team's home-field advantage or disadvantage affects tactical setup and execution
- ›Market volume concentration: only $20 in 24h volume on the lead contract suggests limited recent trading activity and potential for repricing on new information
What moved the line
- May 3Draw (Odisha FC vs. Bengaluru FC)↑8pp31→39¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Odisha FC↓6pp41→35¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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