SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 9 outcomes9 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 2 min agoCloses May 4, 2026 · 0d24pp · 10h

Odisha FC vs. Bengaluru FC - More Markets

Leader sits at 75% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 56%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

75%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 56¢leader 75¢

Outcomes

9

winner-take-all

Runner-up

56¢

Both Teams to Score

Spread

19pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

May 4, 2026

0 days

Venue

Polymarket

9 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayO/U 1.5: 65% (4 days, 2 points)O/U 1.5: 65% on 2026-05-02Both Teams to Score: 50% (4 days, 4 points)Both Teams to Score: 50% on 2026-05-03O/U 2.5: 49% (4 days, 3 points)O/U 2.5: 49% on 2026-05-03
O/U 1.565¢Both Teams to Score50¢O/U 2.549¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 4d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that Odisha FC defeats Bengaluru FC in an upcoming Indian Super League match. The 51% probability indicates a near-toss-up favoring Odisha, derived from five separate prediction contracts on Polymarket with significant disagreement—the leading estimate stands at 51% while runner-up contracts show 38%. Home-field advantage, recent team form, and player availability typically drive such matchups. The outcome resolves upon final match result. Key variables include each team's current league position, head-to-head historical performance, injury status of key players, and recent scoring trends. Liquidity remains moderate across contracts, with 24-hour volumes ranging from $52 to $327, suggesting active but not consensus pricing.

  • Odisha FC's current league standing and points differential compared to Bengaluru FC heading into the fixture
  • Win-loss records and goal differential for both teams over their last 5–10 matches prior to kickoff
  • Confirmed player absences or injuries affecting either team's starting lineup or squad depth
  • Historical head-to-head results between these two clubs and venue-specific performance (home vs. away)
  • Market disagreement: 51% leader vs. 38% runner-up indicates material pricing divergence that resolves upon match completion

What moved the line

  • May 3Bengaluru FC (-1.5)5pp3338¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Odisha FC (-2.5)5pp3237¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2O/U 2.53pp5350¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2O/U 4.53pp3134¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.