Orlando City SC vs. Charlotte FC
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 36% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 45%, Polymarket at 32% — a 13pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
45%
5 contracts
Polymarket
32%
15 contracts
Cross-venue gap
13pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$501
20 contracts
Top contract
16¢
$341 · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 45¢ · Polymarket 32¢ · 13pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (32¢, 15 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (45¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
6 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino” vs “Will Zero Tenacity win”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino
Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino: CD Palestino
0x3299d6…ce11
Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x1e7321…d227
Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xe10577…46f4
Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x69428f…bd63
Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino - More Markets: Montevideo City Torque (-2.5)
0x6a797b…580f
Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino - More Markets: CD Palestino (-2.5)
0x375752…c57c
Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino - More Markets: CD Palestino (-1.5)
0x3516b5…3b92
Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino - More Markets: Montevideo City Torque (-1.5)
0xfaa73b…37c0
Cluster 2
Will Zero Tenacity win
Will Zero Tenacity win the Zero Tenacity vs. Nigma Galaxy Dota 2 match?: Zero Tenacity
KXDOTA2GAME-26MAY031100Z10NGX-Z10
Will Zero Tenacity win map 2 in the Zero Tenacity vs. Nigma Galaxy match?: Zero Tenacity
KXDOTA2MAP-26MAY031100Z10NGX-2-Z10
Will Zero Tenacity win the REKONIX vs. Zero Tenacity Dota 2 match?: Zero Tenacity
KXDOTA2GAME-26MAY040500RNXZ10-Z10
Cluster 3
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC
Cluster 4
Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC
Cluster 5
Will Nigma Galaxy win
Cluster 6
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x0e25b5…6674
What moved the line
- May 2Nigma Galaxy↑34pp37→71¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Tochigi City FC↓16pp50→34¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Zero Tenacity↑10pp12→22¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Nigma Galaxy↑9pp70→79¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Yokohama FC (-2.5)↑4pp34→38¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.