SimpleFunctions
20 contractsKalshi + Polymarketrefreshed 8 min ago

Pohang Steelers FC vs. Gwangju FC

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 29% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 32%, Polymarket at 29% — a 3pp cross-venue gap.

Implied probability

29%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

32%

2 contracts

Polymarket

29%

18 contracts

Cross-venue gap

3pp

modest gap

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$50

20 contracts

Top contract

$28 · Polymarket

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 26% (3 days, 3 points)Aggregate: 26% on 2026-05-03
Aggregate of 20 contracts · 3d

Cross-venue edge

Kalshi 32¢ · Polymarket 29¢ · 3pp spread

Buy on Polymarket (29¢, 18 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (32¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.

Bracket families

3 clusters across 20 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Gangwon FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC” vs “Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC vs. Gwangju FC”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

Gangwon FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC

12 contracts$29

Cluster 2

Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC vs. Gwangju FC

6 contracts$21

Cluster 3

Gangwon vs Pohang Steelers Winner

2 contracts$0

What moved the line

  • May 2Pohang Steelers FC (-2.5)24pp3713¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2Pohang Steelers FC (-1.5)23pp3512¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Gwangju FC18pp2810¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2Gwangju FC (-1.5)17pp3316¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2Gangwon FC (-2.5)15pp3318¢ · Polymarket

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 8 min ago.