Preston North End FC vs. Southampton FC - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 32% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 3%, Polymarket at 34% — a 31pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
3%
1 contract
Polymarket
34%
19 contracts
Cross-venue gap
31pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
20 contracts
Top contract
52¢
$0 · Polymarket
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 3¢ · Polymarket 34¢ · 31pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (3¢, 1 contract) and sell on Polymarket (34¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
5 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “Vegalta Sendai vs. Tochigi SC - More Markets” vs “Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Vegalta Sendai vs. Tochigi SC - More Markets
Vegalta Sendai vs. Tochigi SC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x1d1df7…7c61
Vegalta Sendai vs. Tochigi SC - More Markets: Vegalta Sendai (-1.5)
0xc5196f…0618
Vegalta Sendai vs. Tochigi SC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x75a530…9f1f
Vegalta Sendai vs. Tochigi SC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x3dd375…cb9a
Vegalta Sendai vs. Tochigi SC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xd90426…8b0d
Vegalta Sendai vs. Tochigi SC - More Markets: Tochigi SC (-1.5)
0x97bc06…aeed
Cluster 2
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: Independiente Santa Fe (-2.5)
0x40633c…f8d8
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x13712f…25b6
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x5735da…8821
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x65835d…d417
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: Independiente Santa Fe (-1.5)
0x559461…3557
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: SC Corinthians Paulista (-1.5)
0x71f745…44e7
Cluster 3
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC - More Markets
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x9ff78c…90df
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x735342…ad9d
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC - More Markets: Fluminense FC (-1.5)
0x5fff26…3c5a
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC - More Markets: CS Independiente Rivadavia (-1.5)
0x43d406…e39b
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC - More Markets: CS Independiente Rivadavia (-2.5)
0x4fe614…7662
Cluster 4
Universidad Central de Venezuela FC vs. Independiente del Valle - More Markets
Cluster 5
Will Preston North End be promoted from the EFL Championship in the 2025-26 season
What moved the line
- Apr 26Preston North End↓5pp10→5¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Tochigi SC (-1.5)↑4pp33→37¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 10 min ago.