Punjab FC vs. Chennaiyin FC
Leader sits at 65% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 23%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Punjab FC
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
23¢
Draw (Punjab FC vs. Chennaiy
Spread
42pp
contested
24h volume
$500
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Punjab FC vs. Chennaiyin FC
Analysis
The market prices Punjab FC as a 65% favorite to win this match against Chennaiyin FC, reflecting roughly two-to-one odds in Punjab's favor. This probability reflects the aggregate view of traders across multiple contracts, with the main driver appearing to be relative team form or recent performance; Punjab's elevated odds suggest they enter as the stronger competitor based on available information. The match outcome will be determined by live play, and the probability would shift if new information emerged about injuries, lineup changes, or other competitive factors before kickoff. The scheduled match date itself serves as the concrete resolution event—once the fixture concludes, the market settles to either Punjab victory (65¢ outcome realized) or one of the alternative outcomes (23% Chennaiyin, 12% draw/other). Current trading volume is concentrated in the main match winner contract, while secondary markets show thin liquidity, suggesting limited refinement in specialized betting interest.
- ›Punjab FC has significantly higher implied win probability (65%) compared to Chennaiyin FC (16%), indicating traders view Punjab as materially stronger on available form data
- ›The secondary contract on Punjab at -1.5 goals trades at 39¢, materially lower than the 65¢ match-winner price, suggesting uncertainty about margin of victory even if Punjab is favored to win
- ›Over 2.5 goals contract trades at 52¢, indicating near-even expectations for total match scoring despite Punjab being favorite, suggesting defensive strength or cautious market view on goal volume
- ›Primary match contract shows 500x higher 24-hour volume than secondary contracts, concentrating price discovery in the straight-up winner market rather than goal spread or total derivatives
- ›Chennaiyin FC at 16% match probability versus Chennayin at -2.5 goals at 10¢ creates an asymmetry worth noting, as -2.5 line prices imply a different strength assessment than the main outcome contract
What moved the line
- May 3Punjab FC↑19pp46→65¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Chennaiyin FC↓14pp30→16¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Chennaiyin FC↓4pp34→30¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Punjab FC↑3pp43→46¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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