Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC
Leader sits at 46% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 28%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Qingdao Xihaian FC
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
28¢
Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC
Spread
18pp
contested
24h volume
$76
thin orderbook
Closes
May 5, 2026
1 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC
0x299117…a858
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: Qingdao Xihaian FC
0x5734d6…d64b
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: Draw (Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC)
0x47b594…8c5a
Analysis
This represents the market's current assessment that Qingdao Xihaian FC has a 45% chance of defeating Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC in their upcoming match. Qingdao is priced as the favorite, but the market assigns Tianjin meaningful probability at 28%, suggesting genuine competitive uncertainty. The probability reflects recent team form, head-to-head records, and squad composition. Resolution will occur upon match completion, which determines a winner-take-all outcome across the three bound contracts. The relatively modest 24-hour trading volume ($33 on the leader contract) suggests limited recent conviction in either direction, leaving room for probability shifts as match day approaches or new information about injuries or lineups emerges.
- ›Current implied probability gap of 17 percentage points between Qingdao (45%) and Tianjin (28%) indicates moderate but not overwhelming market confidence in Qingdao's advantage
- ›Recent 24-hour volumes ($33 for Qingdao, $91 for Tianjin combined across contracts) show higher activity on Tianjin contracts relative to market consensus, potentially signaling contrarian positioning
- ›The over/under 2.5 goals contract at 47¢ suggests relatively balanced expectations around match scoring, which could constrain volatility in directional bets
- ›Head-to-head record and current league standings between the two clubs would establish baseline form differential driving the 17-point spread
- ›Injury reports or squad availability announcements before match day represent the most likely catalyst for probability re-evaluation given low current trading conviction
What moved the line
- May 2Qingdao Xihaian FC↑6pp42→48¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC↓3pp29→26¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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