RB Ōmiya Ardija vs. Iwaki FC
Leader sits at 47% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 37%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
RB Ōmiya Ardija
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
37¢
Iwaki FC
Spread
10pp
contested
24h volume
$10
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
RB Ōmiya Ardija vs. Iwaki FC
Analysis
This 39% probability reflects market expectations that Iwaki FC will win an upcoming match against RB Ōmiya Ardija. The market is pricing Iwaki FC as a slight favorite, with the runner-up outcome at 35%, indicating genuine uncertainty about the result. Current pricing suggests Iwaki FC has a modest edge in expected performance, though the narrow gap between top outcomes means the match remains competitive. The probability would shift higher if Iwaki FC demonstrates form advantages or Ōmiya faces key absences, and would decline if Ōmiya shows stronger recent performance or home-field advantage proves significant. Resolution occurs after the match is played and the final result is official.
- ›Recent form and league position of both teams heading into the match
- ›Home/away status and historical head-to-head performance in this fixture
- ›Injury status and player availability for both squads
- ›Relative strength of attack and defense metrics for each team this season
- ›Market liquidity is extremely low ($0 24h volume), indicating limited trader confidence or interest in this specific matchup
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 8 min ago.