RFK Akhmat Groznyi vs. FK Pari Nizhnii Novgorod - More Markets: O/U 1.5
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 44% across 10 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
44%
10 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$3K
10 contracts
Closes
May 3, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 29% of their title tokens — “Will Boston Breach win” vs “Will Paris Gentle Mates win”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Boston Breach win
Will Boston Breach win the Boston Breach vs. Paris Gentle Mates match?: Boston Breach
KXCODGAME-26MAY031800BOSPAR-BOS
Will Boston Breach win map 1 in the Boston Breach vs. Paris Gentle Mates match?: Boston Breach
KXCODMAP-26MAY031800BOSPAR-1-BOS
Will Boston Breach win map 2 in the Boston Breach vs. Paris Gentle Mates match?: Boston Breach
KXCODMAP-26MAY031800BOSPAR-2-BOS
Will Boston Breach win map 3 in the Boston Breach vs. Paris Gentle Mates match?: Boston Breach
KXCODMAP-26MAY031800BOSPAR-3-BOS
Cluster 2
Will Paris Gentle Mates win
Will Paris Gentle Mates win the Boston Breach vs. Paris Gentle Mates match?: Paris Gentle Mates
KXCODGAME-26MAY031800BOSPAR-PAR
Will Paris Gentle Mates win map 2 in the Boston Breach vs. Paris Gentle Mates match?: Paris Gentle Mates
KXCODMAP-26MAY031800BOSPAR-2-PAR
Will Paris Gentle Mates win map 3 in the Boston Breach vs. Paris Gentle Mates match?: Paris Gentle Mates
KXCODMAP-26MAY031800BOSPAR-3-PAR
Will Paris Gentle Mates win map 1 in the Boston Breach vs. Paris Gentle Mates match?: Paris Gentle Mates
KXCODMAP-26MAY031800BOSPAR-1-PAR
Cluster 3
Will over 3.5 maps be played in the Boston Breach vs. Paris Gentle Mates Call of Duty match
Cluster 4
Will over 4.5 maps be played in the Boston Breach vs. Paris Gentle Mates Call of Duty match
What moved the line
- May 1Over 3.5 maps↑26pp2→28¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Over 3.5 maps↑18pp28→46¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Over 3.5 maps↓18pp46→28¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Over 4.5 maps↓14pp17→3¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Paris Gentle Mates↑13pp54→67¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.