Sagan Tosu vs. Gainare Tottori - More Markets
Leader sits at 65% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 54%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
54¢
O/U 2.5
Spread
11pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Sagan Tosu vs. Gainare Tottori - More Markets
Sagan Tosu vs. Gainare Tottori - More Markets: Sagan Tosu (-1.5)
0xde051c…f56b
Sagan Tosu vs. Gainare Tottori - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xc62c80…3ca6
Sagan Tosu vs. Gainare Tottori - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x719429…7984
Sagan Tosu vs. Gainare Tottori - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x57869b…5019
Sagan Tosu vs. Gainare Tottori - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x2d68ef…5be9
Sagan Tosu vs. Gainare Tottori - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xb085f4…d24e
Sagan Tosu vs. Gainare Tottori - More Markets: Gainare Tottori (-2.5)
0x00cdc8…8c9f
Sagan Tosu vs. Gainare Tottori - More Markets: Sagan Tosu (-2.5)
0x5900f7…c899
Sagan Tosu vs. Gainare Tottori - More Markets: Gainare Tottori (-1.5)
0xe81828…a3a4
Analysis
This market assigns a 51% probability to Sagan Tosu winning against Gainare Tottori, based on aggregated pricing from five contracts on Polymarket. The market shows relatively tight positioning, with the leader at 51% and the runner-up at 38%, indicating meaningful disagreement among traders. Key drivers of this probability include the teams' recent form, head-to-head history, and current league standings in the Japanese football system. The match itself will serve as the primary resolution event, with the outcome determined by final score. Market pricing reflects uncertainty that could shift significantly if new team news—such as injuries, lineup changes, or betting-line movements from traditional sportsbooks—emerges before kickoff. The relatively low trading volume ($306 24h across contracts) suggests limited liquidity, meaning substantial new positions could move prices noticeably.
- ›Sagan Tosu's current J-League standing and recent match results versus Gainare Tottori's recent form
- ›Historical head-to-head performance between the two clubs and home/away advantage factors
- ›Team lineup and injury status announcements closer to match day
- ›Comparative odds and implied probabilities from major Asian sportsbooks relative to the 51% market price
- ›Trading volume and order book depth suggesting how sensitive prices may be to new information
What moved the line
- May 3Gainare Tottori (-1.5)↑4pp33→37¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Sagan Tosu (-2.5)↑4pp32→36¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Gainare Tottori (-2.5)↑3pp34→37¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.