SC Corinthians Paulista vs. CR Vasco da Gama - More Markets: SC Corinthians Paulista (-2.5)
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 19 contracts. Kalshi at 38%, Polymarket at 33% — a 5pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
38%
2 contracts
Polymarket
33%
17 contracts
Cross-venue gap
5pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$7K
19 contracts
Top contract
61¢
$6K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 38¢ · Polymarket 33¢ · 5pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (33¢, 17 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (38¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
5 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista” vs “Audax CS Italiano vs. CR Vasco da Gama”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: Independiente Santa Fe (-2.5)
0x40633c…f8d8
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: SC Corinthians Paulista
0xb8cbca…69e4
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: Independiente Santa Fe
0xcf1ee3…1f60
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: Draw (Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista)
0x13d4e1…06b7
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x13712f…25b6
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x96cfcd…1513
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: SC Corinthians Paulista (-1.5)
0x71f745…44e7
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xd128a4…33d7
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: Independiente Santa Fe (-1.5)
0x559461…3557
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: SC Corinthians Paulista (-2.5)
0xd92e3c…28a1
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x65835d…d417
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x5735da…8821
Cluster 2
Audax CS Italiano vs. CR Vasco da Gama
Cluster 3
Flamengo vs Vasco da Gama Winner
Cluster 4
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: FK Bodø/Glimt
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5)
0x879d11…150c
Cluster 5
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x92fa6c…9a3a
What moved the line
- Apr 27Flamengo↑23pp40→63¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 27Vasco da Gama↑4pp6→10¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Flamengo↓3pp65→62¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Vasco da Gama↑3pp12→15¢ · Kalshi
- May 2O/U 2.5↑3pp63→66¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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