SC Internacional vs. Fluminense FC
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 19 contracts. Kalshi at 34%, Polymarket at 29% — a 5pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
34%
7 contracts
Polymarket
29%
12 contracts
Cross-venue gap
5pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$921
19 contracts
Closes
May 3, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 34¢ · Polymarket 29¢ · 5pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (29¢, 12 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (34¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
3 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 17% of their title tokens — “CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC” vs “Fluminense at Internacional: Totals: Over”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC: Fluminense FC
0xdf1c56…de24
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC - More Markets: CS Independiente Rivadavia (-2.5)
0x4fe614…7662
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x9ff78c…90df
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x735342…ad9d
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC - More Markets: Fluminense FC (-1.5)
0x5fff26…3c5a
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC - More Markets: Fluminense FC (-2.5)
0xff496f…1114
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC: Draw (CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC)
0x3a3edf…49b6
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC: CS Independiente Rivadavia
0xa11f14…34a6
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xb4cd80…04dc
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x8b09a6…fc9e
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xd8a7d5…4976
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC - More Markets: CS Independiente Rivadavia (-1.5)
0x43d406…e39b
Cluster 2
Fluminense at Internacional: Totals: Over
Fluminense at Internacional: Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored
KXBRASILEIROTOTAL-26MAY03INTFLU-3
Fluminense at Internacional: Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored
KXBRASILEIROTOTAL-26MAY03INTFLU-2
Fluminense at Internacional: Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored
KXBRASILEIROTOTAL-26MAY03INTFLU-1
Fluminense at Internacional: Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored
KXBRASILEIROTOTAL-26MAY03INTFLU-4
Cluster 3
Internacional vs Fluminense Winner
Internacional vs Fluminense Winner?: Fluminense
KXBRASILEIROGAME-26MAY03INTFLU-FLU
Internacional vs Fluminense Winner?: Internacional
KXBRASILEIROGAME-26MAY03INTFLU-INT
Internacional vs Fluminense Winner?: Tie
KXBRASILEIROGAME-26MAY03INTFLU-TIE
What moved the line
- Apr 27Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored↑17pp21→38¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 28Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored↑14pp50→64¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 29Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored↑12pp7→19¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 27Internacional↑11pp27→38¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 27Fluminense↑6pp19→25¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 7 min ago.