SC Sagamihara vs. Tochigi City FC
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 40% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 48%, Polymarket at 38% — a 10pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
48%
4 contracts
Polymarket
38%
16 contracts
Cross-venue gap
10pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$517
20 contracts
Top contract
16¢
$341 · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 48¢ · Polymarket 38¢ · 10pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (38¢, 16 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (48¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
5 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 14% of their title tokens — “Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC” vs “Vegalta Sendai vs. Tochigi SC - More Markets”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC: Yokohama FC
0x55b12d…3f34
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC: Tochigi City FC
0x203174…cc92
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC: Draw (Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC)
0x9bdcef…cc6a
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xd165f0…81c8
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC - More Markets: Tochigi City FC (-2.5)
0xd08f51…1e15
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x22beac…2bae
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xd68383…5708
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC - More Markets: Tochigi City FC (-1.5)
0x00d353…5196
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x5e3b75…609a
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC - More Markets: Yokohama FC (-2.5)
0x63f37e…c527
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC - More Markets: Yokohama FC (-1.5)
0x2c1d81…eecf
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x1addf0…ac8d
Cluster 2
Vegalta Sendai vs. Tochigi SC - More Markets
Cluster 3
Will Zero Tenacity win
Cluster 4
Will Nigma Galaxy win
Cluster 5
Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino: CD Palestino
Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino: CD Palestino
0x3299d6…ce11
What moved the line
- May 2Nigma Galaxy↑34pp37→71¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Tochigi City FC↓16pp50→34¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Zero Tenacity↑10pp12→22¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Nigma Galaxy↑9pp70→79¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Both Teams to Score↓8pp59→51¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.