Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC
Leader sits at 41% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 35%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Shanghai Shenhua FC
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
35¢
Shandong Taishan FC
Spread
6pp
contested
24h volume
$63
thin orderbook
Closes
May 5, 2026
1 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: Shanghai Shenhua FC
0x0f12ad…4df5
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: Draw (Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC)
0xb941d9…4244
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: Shandong Taishan FC
0x11820e…21ac
Analysis
The market implies Shanghai Shenhua FC has a 41% chance of winning against Shandong Taishan FC in an upcoming match. This probability reflects the two teams' relative strength, recent form, and head-to-head dynamics. The 35% runner-up probability suggests meaningful uncertainty between the top contenders. Key drivers include each team's current league standing, injury status, and home-field advantage if applicable. The match itself will definitively resolve this contract once final whistle sounds. Supporting markets show traders expect over 2.5 goals at 67% probability, indicating confidence in attacking play. Trading volume of $560 in 24 hours on the primary contract reflects moderate interest in Chinese Super League wagering.
- ›Shanghai Shenhua FC's current league position and points total relative to Shandong Taishan FC as of early May 2026
- ›Head-to-head record and goal differential between these two clubs in recent seasons
- ›Availability of key players due to injury, suspension, or international call-ups for each squad
- ›Home vs. away performance records this season for both teams; whether the match is played at neutral, home, or away venue
- ›The 67% over 2.5 goals probability suggests expected attacking approach, which may correlate with either team's defensive vulnerabilities
What moved the line
- May 2Draw (Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC)↓3pp28→25¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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