Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets
Leader sits at 87% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 68%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
68¢
Both Teams to Score
Spread
19pp
contested
24h volume
$155
thin orderbook
Closes
May 5, 2026
1 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x20d721…2fe8
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x92fa6c…9a3a
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xff2a9a…cd1f
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xb2fdfb…12fc
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x1e5ceb…d94f
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-2.5)
0xfa1d79…8e45
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: Shandong Taishan FC (-2.5)
0x15f1cb…719f
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-1.5)
0x1602b2…5c4d
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: Shandong Taishan FC (-1.5)
0x8d6eb4…11cc
Analysis
The 69% probability indicates market participants believe Shanghai Shenhua FC is favored to win against Shandong Taishan FC in an upcoming Chinese Super League match. However, this headline figure masks disagreement across markets: Polymarket prices Shanghai Shenhua as a narrower favorite (41¢), while the contract showing 69% appears to price either Shenhua victory or a higher-scoring outcome. The main drivers of current pricing are likely recent form, home/away status, and player availability. The probability will shift based on team lineups, injury confirmations, and any weather or scheduling changes announced before kickoff. Resolution occurs when the match concludes and official final score is confirmed, typically within 24 hours of the scheduled game time.
- ›Shanghai Shenhua's recent league position and points-per-game average versus Shandong Taishan's current standing
- ›Head-to-head historical record between these clubs over the past 2-3 seasons
- ›Confirmed player availability, including any key injuries or suspensions for either team
- ›Home venue advantage (location of the match and recent home/away performance splits)
- ›Official kick-off time confirmation and any last-minute tactical lineup changes reported before match start
What moved the line
- May 2Shanghai Shenhua FC (-2.5)↓10pp26→16¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Shandong Taishan FC (-2.5)↑8pp23→31¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Shanghai Shenhua FC (-1.5)↑6pp23→29¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Shanghai Shenhua FC (-1.5)↓5pp28→23¢ · Polymarket
- May 2O/U 3.5↑3pp43→46¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.