Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC
Leader sits at 62% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 21%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Shanghai Haigang FC
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
21¢
Draw (Shanghai Haigang FC vs
Spread
41pp
contested
24h volume
$27
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC
0xc09bd5…6667
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: Shanghai Haigang FC
0xa0abb9…77bd
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: Draw (Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC)
0x774484…9dc5
Analysis
This market reflects a 64% implied probability that Shanghai Haigang FC will defeat Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC in their upcoming match. The odds favor Shanghai, though the 20% probability assigned to Shenzhen suggests meaningful uncertainty about the outcome. Trading volume is modest across related contracts, with total 24-hour volume under $1,000, indicating relatively light liquidity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads. The probability could shift based on team news—injuries, roster changes, or tactical announcements—in the days before kickoff. Shenzhen's handicap market trading at 11 cents suggests bettors expect a close or one-sided contest depending on the spread context. Resolution will occur at match conclusion when the final score determines the winner.
- ›Shanghai Haigang is priced at 64% vs. Shenzhen at 20%, with 16% remaining for draw outcomes, indicating the market views Shanghai as the clear favorite but not overwhelming
- ›Low aggregate volume (~$900 across 24 hours) suggests limited price discovery and possible vulnerability to new team information or public betting shifts
- ›Shenzhen's handicap contract (-2.5) trading at 11 cents indicates bettors expect either Shanghai to win by at least 3 goals or a relatively decisive Shanghai victory on balance
- ›The runner-up probability of 20% for Shenzhen implies roughly a 3:1 odds ratio favoring Shanghai, consistent with typical home-field or quality advantage in Asian football
- ›Contract liquidity is concentrated in the outright winner market rather than spread or total-goals markets, suggesting most traders lack strong conviction on margin of victory
What moved the line
- May 2Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC↓8pp30→22¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Draw (Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC)↓8pp29→21¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Shanghai Haigang FC↑5pp58→63¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Draw (Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC)↓4pp33→29¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC↓3pp22→19¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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