Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka
Leader sits at 38% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 35%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Shimizu S-Pulse
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
35¢
Cerezo Ōsaka
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka
Analysis
This represents the implied probability that Shimizu S-Pulse will defeat Cerezo Ōsaka in an upcoming J-League match, based on aggregated betting contracts. At 45%, Shimizu S-Pulse is favored but with meaningful uncertainty; Cerezo Ōsaka sits at 34% with a draw priced at 21%. The probability reflects recent team form, head-to-head records, injury status, and home-field advantage. Key drivers of movement would include confirmed lineups before kickoff, weather conditions on match day, and any late team news affecting key players. The resolution point is the final match result once the fixture is played, which would definitively settle all contracts.
- ›Shimizu S-Pulse's current league position and recent win-loss record versus Cerezo Ōsaka's standing and recent performance trends
- ›Head-to-head historical matchup results between these two clubs, including goals-for and goals-against patterns
- ›Injury or suspension status of key players for either team confirmed within 48 hours of kickoff
- ›Home-field advantage if the match is at Shimizu's or Cerezo's home stadium, and crowd atmosphere factors
- ›Current goal differential and defensive strength metrics for each team this season
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.