SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 11 outcomes11 contractsKalshirefreshed 7 min ago

SOL price on Apr 24, 2026

Leader sits at 95% across 11 bound outcomes, runner-up at 91%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

95%

$83 or above

runner-up 91¢leader 95¢

Outcomes

11

winner-take-all

Runner-up

91¢

$77 or above

Spread

4pp

contested

24h volume

$6K

modest

Closes

not derived

Venue

Kalshi

11 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtoday$83 or above: 71% (3 days, 2 points)$83 or above: 71% on 2026-05-03$77 or above: 89% (3 days, 3 points)$77 or above: 89% on 2026-05-03$83 or above: 53% (3 days, 3 points)$83 or above: 53% on 2026-05-03
$83 or above71¢$77 or above89¢$83 or above53¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 3d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

What moved the line

  • May 3$84 or above17pp5538¢ · Kalshi
  • May 3$83 or above7pp7871¢ · Kalshi
  • May 3$86 or above6pp104¢ · Kalshi
  • May 2$84 or above3pp4346¢ · Kalshi
  • May 3$84 or above3pp4643¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 7 min ago.