What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 9
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 38% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
38%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$27K
20 contracts
Closes
May 22, 2026
17 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 11
What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 11?: Puzzle
KXSURVIVORMENTION-26MAY06-PUZZ
What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 11?: Fire
KXSURVIVORMENTION-26MAY06-FIRE
What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 11?: Water
KXSURVIVORMENTION-26MAY06-WATE
What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 11?: Rope
KXSURVIVORMENTION-26MAY06-ROPE
What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 11?: Dig Deep
KXSURVIVORMENTION-26MAY06-DIG
What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 11?: Hunger / Hungry
KXSURVIVORMENTION-26MAY06-HUNG
What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 11?: Sit Out
KXSURVIVORMENTION-26MAY06-SIT
What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 11?: Alliance
KXSURVIVORMENTION-26MAY06-ALLI
What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 11?: Comeback / Come Back
KXSURVIVORMENTION-26MAY06-COME
What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 11?: Key
KXSURVIVORMENTION-26MAY06-KEY
What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 11?: Trust
KXSURVIVORMENTION-26MAY06-TRUS
What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 11?: Journey
KXSURVIVORMENTION-26MAY06-JOUR
What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 11?: Tie / Tied
KXSURVIVORMENTION-26MAY06-TIE
What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 11?: Safe / Safety
KXSURVIVORMENTION-26MAY06-SAFE
What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 11?: Drop / Dropped
KXSURVIVORMENTION-26MAY06-DROP
What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 11?: MrBeast / Beast
KXSURVIVORMENTION-26MAY06-MRBE
What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 11?: Record / Longest
KXSURVIVORMENTION-26MAY06-RECO
What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 11?: Fallon
KXSURVIVORMENTION-26MAY06-FALL
Cluster 2
What will any participating contestant say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 11
What moved the line
- May 3Million↑12pp85→97¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Water↑12pp53→65¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Record / Longest↓9pp38→29¢ · Kalshi
- May 3MrBeast / Beast↑7pp53→60¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Puzzle↑6pp14→20¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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