Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs. Giravanz Kitakyūshū
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 39% across 20 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
39%
20 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
20 contracts
Top contract
36¢
$0 · Polymarket
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto” vs “Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs. FC Ryūkyū”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x59b299…2b8a
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x0a8c9d…15b7
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto: Giravanz Kitakyūshū
0x293b9d…3984
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto: Roasso Kumamoto
0xb333ae…847a
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto: Draw (Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto)
0xeb0a6c…e3e4
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x9e0a79…5073
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto - More Markets: Giravanz Kitakyūshū (-2.5)
0x218550…9d13
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x1b2ae8…f42c
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto - More Markets: Roasso Kumamoto (-2.5)
0x13917b…2bc5
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto - More Markets: Giravanz Kitakyūshū (-1.5)
0x226e5a…44b2
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xb972b7…e015
Cluster 2
Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs. FC Ryūkyū
Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs. FC Ryūkyū: FC Ryūkyū
0xb521a1…e4ca
Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs. FC Ryūkyū - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x1caf69…9174
Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs. FC Ryūkyū - More Markets: Tegevajaro Miyazaki (-1.5)
0xf4a4fa…188d
Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs. FC Ryūkyū: Draw (Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs. FC Ryūkyū)
0x374006…53c4
Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs. FC Ryūkyū - More Markets: FC Ryūkyū (-2.5)
0x8122ee…88bf
Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs. FC Ryūkyū - More Markets: FC Ryūkyū (-1.5)
0xc6d7d5…3edc
Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs. FC Ryūkyū - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x0bd2ca…5488
Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs. FC Ryūkyū - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x4ff230…0214
Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs. FC Ryūkyū - More Markets: Tegevajaro Miyazaki (-2.5)
0xeba801…f645
What moved the line
- May 3Tegevajaro Miyazaki (-2.5)↑5pp32→37¢ · Polymarket
- May 3FC Ryūkyū (-1.5)↑5pp33→38¢ · Polymarket
- May 3FC Ryūkyū (-2.5)↑4pp34→38¢ · Polymarket
- May 3FC Ryūkyū↑3pp37→40¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Roasso Kumamoto (-2.5)↑3pp34→37¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 15 min ago.