Toronto FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 34% across 20 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
34%
20 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$67
20 contracts
Top contract
73¢
$25 · Polymarket
30-day trend
Bracket families
9 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC - More Markets” vs “CD Cuenca vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro - More Markets”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC - More Markets
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x958037…d5e6
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xc2ca50…51b6
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x6bf7a4…f057
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xf3ccec…9b09
Cluster 2
CD Cuenca vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro - More Markets
CD Cuenca vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x8d5ad4…be44
CD Cuenca vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xc4dd63…8eeb
CD Cuenca vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xa69c04…1624
CD Cuenca vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro - More Markets: CD Cuenca (-2.5)
0x0ba8c8…aa51
Cluster 3
Kataller Toyama vs. Kamatamare Sanuki - More Markets
Kataller Toyama vs. Kamatamare Sanuki - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xd10859…62db
Kataller Toyama vs. Kamatamare Sanuki - More Markets: Kamatamare Sanuki (-1.5)
0x7056f5…f07f
Kataller Toyama vs. Kamatamare Sanuki - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x881f45…deb3
Cluster 4
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x5735da…8821
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: Independiente Santa Fe (-1.5)
0x559461…3557
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x65835d…d417
Cluster 5
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets: O/U
Cluster 6
Which club will Cristiano Ronaldo play for next
Which club will Cristiano Ronaldo play for next?: San Jose Earthquakes
0x864908…49f9
Cluster 7
MLS Cup Winner 2026: San Jose Earthquakes
MLS Cup Winner 2026: San Jose Earthquakes
0x3b08ae…dd27
Cluster 8
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets: Vissel Kōbe
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets: Vissel Kōbe (-2.5)
0x0dd98d…b64e
Cluster 9
Recoleta FC vs. Santos FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
Recoleta FC vs. Santos FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xbdae7d…8701
What moved the line
- Apr 28San Jose Earthquakes↑42pp8→50¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 30San Jose Earthquakes↓23pp29→6¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28San Jose Earthquakes↑21pp8→29¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Vissel Kōbe (-2.5)↑15pp11→26¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 26San Jose Earthquakes↑9pp3→12¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.