Universidad Central de Venezuela FC vs. Independiente del Valle
Leader sits at 74% across 12 bound outcomes, runner-up at 54%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
12
winner-take-all
Runner-up
54¢
Independiente del Valle
Spread
20pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
12 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Universidad Central de Venezuela FC vs. Independiente del Valle
Universidad Central de Venezuela FC vs. Independiente del Valle: Universidad Central de Venezuela FC
0xf1233b…21a3
Universidad Central de Venezuela FC vs. Independiente del Valle - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x194275…ae7e
Universidad Central de Venezuela FC vs. Independiente del Valle - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x379684…337b
Universidad Central de Venezuela FC vs. Independiente del Valle - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x45d8d6…0e2b
Universidad Central de Venezuela FC vs. Independiente del Valle - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xfba09a…4d70
Universidad Central de Venezuela FC vs. Independiente del Valle - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xdf2dc3…aa24
Universidad Central de Venezuela FC vs. Independiente del Valle - More Markets: Independiente del Valle (-2.5)
0xb49118…0138
Universidad Central de Venezuela FC vs. Independiente del Valle - More Markets: Universidad Central de Venezuela FC (-2.5)
0x171d1b…8dec
Universidad Central de Venezuela FC vs. Independiente del Valle - More Markets: Independiente del Valle (-1.5)
0x402808…f801
Universidad Central de Venezuela FC vs. Independiente del Valle - More Markets: Universidad Central de Venezuela FC (-1.5)
0x64bd66…b78d
Universidad Central de Venezuela FC vs. Independiente del Valle: Independiente del Valle
0xa49e95…820b
Universidad Central de Venezuela FC vs. Independiente del Valle: Draw (Universidad Central de Venezuela FC vs. Independiente del Valle)
0x8725fd…826f
Analysis
This market reflects the likelihood that Universidad Central de Venezuela FC defeats Independiente del Valle in their upcoming match, currently priced at 55% among prediction market participants. The assessment depends heavily on recent team form, head-to-head records, and home-field advantage dynamics in the Venezuelan context. Key factors include each team's current league standing, injury or suspension status, and historical performance in similar competitive situations. The match outcome will be definitively resolved once the game concludes, with goals scored and final scoreline determining the winner. Market sentiment can shift based on team news announcements, lineup confirmations, or betting activity in the 24-48 hours before kickoff.
- ›Current league standings and points totals for both Universidad Central de Venezuela and Independiente del Valle in their respective competitions
- ›Head-to-head historical record between the two clubs, including goal differential and venue-specific performance patterns
- ›Reported injuries, suspensions, or roster changes for key players on either side prior to match day
- ›Whether the match is played at Universidad Central's home stadium versus neutral or away venue, affecting crowd dynamics
- ›Recent form: each team's results in their last 3-5 matches, including goals conceded and defensive solidity metrics
What moved the line
- May 3Independiente del Valle↑20pp36→56¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Draw (Universidad Central de Venezuela FC vs. Independiente del Valle)↑6pp19→25¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Independiente del Valle (-1.5)↓6pp34→28¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Universidad Central de Venezuela FC (-1.5)↓5pp29→24¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Independiente del Valle (-2.5)↓5pp35→30¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.