Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. Colorado Rapids SC
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 40% across 13 contracts. Kalshi at 45%, Polymarket at 24% — a 21pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
45%
10 contracts
Polymarket
24%
3 contracts
Cross-venue gap
21pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$5K
13 contracts
Top contract
13¢
$2K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 45¢ · Polymarket 24¢ · 21pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (24¢, 3 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (45¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
6 clusters across 13 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 29% of their title tokens — “Will Los Angeles Thieves win” vs “Will Vancouver Surge win”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Los Angeles Thieves win
Will Los Angeles Thieves win the Los Angeles Thieves vs. Vancouver Surge match?: Los Angeles Thieves
KXCODGAME-26MAY031500LATVAN-LAT
Will Los Angeles Thieves win map 2 in the Los Angeles Thieves vs. Vancouver Surge match?: Los Angeles Thieves
KXCODMAP-26MAY031500LATVAN-2-LAT
Will Los Angeles Thieves win map 1 in the Los Angeles Thieves vs. Vancouver Surge match?: Los Angeles Thieves
KXCODMAP-26MAY031500LATVAN-1-LAT
Will Los Angeles Thieves win map 3 in the Los Angeles Thieves vs. Vancouver Surge match?: Los Angeles Thieves
KXCODMAP-26MAY031500LATVAN-3-LAT
Cluster 2
Will Vancouver Surge win
Will Vancouver Surge win the Los Angeles Thieves vs. Vancouver Surge match?: Vancouver Surge
KXCODGAME-26MAY031500LATVAN-VAN
Will Vancouver Surge win map 1 in the Los Angeles Thieves vs. Vancouver Surge match?: Vancouver Surge
KXCODMAP-26MAY031500LATVAN-1-VAN
Will Vancouver Surge win map 3 in the Los Angeles Thieves vs. Vancouver Surge match?: Vancouver Surge
KXCODMAP-26MAY031500LATVAN-3-VAN
Will Vancouver Surge win map 2 in the Los Angeles Thieves vs. Vancouver Surge match?: Vancouver Surge
KXCODMAP-26MAY031500LATVAN-2-VAN
Cluster 3
Which club will Cristiano Ronaldo play for next
Cluster 4
Will over 4.5 maps be played in the Los Angeles Thieves vs. Vancouver Surge Call of Duty match
Cluster 5
Will over 3.5 maps be played in the Los Angeles Thieves vs. Vancouver Surge Call of Duty match
Cluster 6
MLS Cup Winner 2026: Vancouver Whitecaps FC
MLS Cup Winner 2026: Vancouver Whitecaps FC
0x25bf49…5442
What moved the line
- May 1Over 3.5 maps↑43pp10→53¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 28Colorado Rapids↑40pp10→50¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Over 3.5 maps↓23pp56→33¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Over 4.5 maps↓17pp20→3¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 28Vancouver Whitecaps FC↑12pp11→23¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.