Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Shōnan Bellmāre
Leader sits at 47% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 37%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Vanraure Hachinohe FC
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
37¢
Shōnan Bellmāre
Spread
10pp
contested
24h volume
$45
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Shōnan Bellmāre
Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Shōnan Bellmāre: Vanraure Hachinohe FC
0x22f232…f330
Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Shōnan Bellmāre: Shōnan Bellmāre
0x475f38…af0f
Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Shōnan Bellmāre: Draw (Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Shōnan Bellmāre)
0x8e89cd…5f78
Analysis
Markets currently assign a 47% probability to Vanraure Hachinohe FC winning this matchup, compared to a 40% probability for Shōnan Bellmāre, with a 14% residual for draw outcomes. This reflects a modest edge for the home side or historically stronger performer in this fixture. The probability is being shaped by recent team form, head-to-head records, and current league standings in Japan's professional football system. A key driver moving this probability would be injury announcements, tactical shifts, or performance trends in the week leading up to the match. The primary catalyst for resolving all uncertainty will be the final whistle of the scheduled fixture itself; until then, late team news and betting shifts in other markets may compress or widen the current spread.
- ›Vanraure Hachinohe FC holds a 7-percentage-point edge over Shōnan Bellmāre in the primary winner market, indicating marginal favorite status rather than strong consensus
- ›The 24-hour volume across all three contracts is zero, suggesting minimal recent trading activity and prices may not reflect intraday information flow
- ›The O/U 2.5 total goals contract is priced at 48¢, implying expectations of a relatively low-scoring match in line with typical Japanese league play
- ›Shōnan Bellmāre's implied probability (40% in winner market vs. 33% in -1.5 spread market) shows some divergence, reflecting model uncertainty around margin of victory
- ›No publicly available injury reports, recent fixtures, or league standings are provided in the data—all probability weights derive from historical or algorithmic factors encoded in prior Polymarket trading
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 10 min ago.