Vegalta Sendai vs. Tochigi SC - More Markets
Leader sits at 65% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 52%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
52¢
O/U 2.5
Spread
13pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Vegalta Sendai vs. Tochigi SC - More Markets
Vegalta Sendai vs. Tochigi SC - More Markets: Vegalta Sendai (-1.5)
0xc5196f…0618
Vegalta Sendai vs. Tochigi SC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x75a530…9f1f
Vegalta Sendai vs. Tochigi SC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xfec7ef…00d0
Vegalta Sendai vs. Tochigi SC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xd90426…8b0d
Vegalta Sendai vs. Tochigi SC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x3dd375…cb9a
Vegalta Sendai vs. Tochigi SC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x1d1df7…7c61
Vegalta Sendai vs. Tochigi SC - More Markets: Tochigi SC (-2.5)
0x638499…2a00
Vegalta Sendai vs. Tochigi SC - More Markets: Vegalta Sendai (-2.5)
0xe6e3ec…5418
Vegalta Sendai vs. Tochigi SC - More Markets: Tochigi SC (-1.5)
0x97bc06…aeed
Analysis
This market reflects expectations that Vegalta Sendai will win their match against Tochigi SC, currently priced at 47% likelihood by the leading contract. The probability sits between a coin flip and slight underdog status, suggesting meaningful uncertainty about the outcome. Key drivers include recent form and head-to-head records of both clubs, along with home-field advantage if applicable. The match result will be determined on the scheduled game date, which will provide definitive resolution. Trading volume across related contracts remains minimal ($0 in 24-hour volume), indicating limited market participation and potentially wider spreads between bid-ask prices. The runner-up contract at 36% suggests some traders assign higher probability to alternative outcomes, though the exact nature of competing bets (draw, Tochigi win, or total goals) affects direct interpretation.
- ›Current leader contract priced at 47% represents substantial uncertainty rather than a strong favorite position
- ›Related contracts show 61% probability on over/under 1.5 goals, suggesting expectations of a low-scoring match that would compress win probabilities
- ›Zero 24-hour trading volume across all visible contracts indicates minimal market liquidity and potential staleness of price data
- ›Runner-up contract at 36% reflects competing probability assessments, with the gap suggesting disagreement on likelihoods across outcome categories
- ›J-League scheduling and team fixture dates will determine when this market resolves to certainty
What moved the line
- May 3Tochigi SC (-1.5)↑4pp33→37¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Vegalta Sendai (-2.5)↑4pp32→36¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.