SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 9 outcomes9 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 3 min agoCloses May 6, 2026 · 2d27pp · 10h

Ventforet Kōfu vs. Júbilo Iwata - More Markets

Leader sits at 77% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 52%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

77%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 52¢leader 77¢

Outcomes

9

winner-take-all

Runner-up

52¢

O/U 2.5

Spread

25pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

May 6, 2026

2 days

Venue

Polymarket

9 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayO/U 1.5: 62% (2 days, 2 points)O/U 1.5: 62% on 2026-05-03O/U 2.5: 52% on 2026-05-02Both Teams to Score: 51% (2 days, 2 points)Both Teams to Score: 51% on 2026-05-03
O/U 1.562¢O/U 2.552¢Both Teams to Score51¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 2d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This market reflects trader estimates of the outcome for a Ventforet Kōfu versus Júbilo Iwata matchup, with the leading contract currently priced at 50 cents, indicating near-parity between the two clubs. The probability sits between the leading estimate and a runner-up position at 32%, reflecting uncertainty about the eventual winner. Key drivers of the pricing include recent form, head-to-head records, and home-field advantage in the J2 League fixture. The match itself will be the single decisive event that resolves all linked contracts. Traders are likely weighing team strength, injury status, and any recent performance trends. The relatively tight clustering around mid-50s pricing suggests experienced participants see this as a competitive encounter without a clear heavy favorite.

  • Current leading contract priced at 50 cents indicates traders assign roughly equal probability to Ventforet Kōfu winning versus alternative outcomes
  • Runner-up contract at 32 cents shows meaningful probability mass on at least one other outcome, suggesting this is not a two-way race
  • J2 League standing and recent win-loss records for both clubs will directly influence final odds as traders reassess before match date
  • Head-to-head history and home/away performance patterns are standard factors analysts use to weight competitive balance
  • Injury reports or lineup announcements closer to the fixture date could shift probabilities if either team faces significant absences

What moved the line

  • May 3Júbilo Iwata (-1.5)5pp3338¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.